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02 JUN 1993
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106505
MDHIAN 2286
Action Tuss
PERSONAL FOR HUM, AUSS
HONG KONG: FUTURE OF THE GARRISON
1. I WAS GRATEFUL TO BE GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE DRAFT OPD (K) PAPER ON THIS SUBJECT (MORRIS'S LETTER TO BOWEN (MOD) OF 25 MAY AND ENCLOSURES, FAXED TO COX).
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2. MY ONLY COMMENTS RELATE TO THE SECTION ON CHINESE REACTIONS. THE DEPARTMENT'S NEW PARAGRAPH 10 AND 10A ARE AN IMPROVEMENT ON THE ORIGINAL VERSION, BUT I SHOULD LIKE TO SUGGEST SOME FURTHER AMENDMENTS. FOR CONVENIENCE THESE ARE INCORPORATED IN THE FOLLOWING REVISION:
10.
CHIN
THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP HAVE A DEEP-ROOTED FEAR OF TURBULENCE IN HONG KONG IN THE LAST YEARS OF BRITISH ADMINISTRATION. THEY WILL BE CONCERNED THAT ANY ACCELERATED REDUCTION IN THE GARRISON COULD HAVE AN ADVERSE IMPACT ON OUR ABILITY TO MAINTAIN PUBLIC ORDER. THEY COULD ALSO INTERPRET SUCH A REDUCTION AS AN INDICATION OF A DIMINISHED BRITISH COMMITMENT TO HONG KONG. AMONG OFFICIALS DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN HONG KONG ISSUES, AND IN THE CHINESE MILITARY, THERE COULD BE A SUSPICION THAT AN EARLY REDUCTION WAS PART OF A STRATEGY INTENDED TO DEPRIVE THE CHINESE GARRISON OF SOME OF THE MILITARY ESTATE WHICH THEY HOPE TO INHERIT IN HONG KONG AFTER 1997, AND/OR TO MAKE THE SIZE OF THEIR GARRISON (REPORTEDLY PLANNED AT 10,000 TROOPS PLUS SUPPORT UNITS) APPEAR EXCESSIVE. IT IS THEREFORE PROBABLE THAT THE CHINESE WOULD SEE A NUMBER OF REASONS TO OBJECT TO OUR REVISED PLANS.
'10A. WE ARE COMMITTED TO KEEPING THE CHINESE INFORMED OF OUR PLANNING FOR THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE GARRISON THROUGH THE SINO-BRITISH JOINT LIAISON GROUP. WE DO NOT REGARD OURSELVES AS BOUND TO SEEK THEIR CONCURRENCE BUT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO PRESENT A DECISION TO ACCELERATE THE RUNDOWN IN SUCH A WAY AS TO MINIMISE THE RISK OF AN ADVERSE PUBLIC REACTION. A PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE DECISION WOULD NEED TO BE GIVEN WHICH AVOIDED REFERENCE TO DIFFICULTIES WITH LEGCO OVER FINANCING IF THE RUNDOWN
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