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CONFIDENTIAL
5.
The Governor said that the option of a rapid run-down deserved consideration. He accepted that it would have a certain political resonance. We would need to judge whether to pursue it seriously in the light of developments over the next few months in the talks with China. He saw the garrison as having three main roles: symbolic; anti-smuggling (particularly the patrol craft); and replacing police on the border in the event of major disturbances. He was not sure that this required as many battalions as were envisaged over the next few years, or whether the requirement could equally be met by a single battalion backed-up by reinforcements if necessary. Sir C France had explained the difficulties about reinforcement. He understood (but was not wholly convinced on) this point. But if Hong Kong were not to get savings from an early and radical run-down of the garrison, there would need to be dramatic cuts in support costs, for example in helicopters.
6.
The Governor added that the Chinese were said to take a close interest in the size of the British garrison. He personally thought that they were much more interested in the question of defence lands. That issue could be sorted out quickly if the talks on political issues made progress: though not on the basis of our present position in the defence lands talks. The Governor saw little point in continuing to haggle with the Chinese over this issue.
7. The Defence Secretary handed the Governor a copy of the Chiefs of Staff paper which we have already seen, proposing withdrawal of one battalion in late 1994 and the second in late 1996. He added that MOD Ministers had felt able to endorse this approach. In a covering letter to the Governor (which will now also be copied to the Foreign Secretary) the Defence Secretary added that he had asked MOD staff to "seek to make further substantial economies in the tail element of the garrison".
8.
Comment: This subject is now a good deal less fraught than it was a few months ago. The MOD seem to have hoisted in the need to make a genuine effort to cut support costs and if necessary to accept a further roll-forward of some of the payments due to them in FY 93/94. The Governor is not (as yet) pressing for radical pruning. But he may return to this if cuts in overall garrison costs cannot be made this year.
PrZchalle
PF Ricketts
hum15.4garrison
CONFIDENTIAL
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