TNAG-2675-FCO40-3872-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 22

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SECRET UK EYES A

to carry

out those tasks formerly met by the Garrison, and of the

continuing financial cost to the HKG of sustaining the Garrison in

accordance with the Defence Costs Agreement (DCA). The proposals for increased democracy announced in October 1992 caused uncertainty in

some areas, particularly in the business community, and aggravated the

already difficult relations that existed between the UK and

and the

People's Republic of China (PRC) due to the Chinese leadership's deep

suspicion of Britain's aims and intentions regarding Hong Kong. The

role of the Garrison is to demonstrate Britain's commitment to Hong

Kong and maintain British Sovereignty to 30 June 1997, so contributing

to confidence and stability in the Territory, and

and this will not

change. However, its size, its activities, its funding and the process

of its withdrawal will nonetheless be subject to close political and

public scrutiny until 30 June 1997: with adjustments being made to

Garrison force levels and to the outline withdrawal plan as

appropriate.

ASSESSMENT OF THE THREAT

5.

The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC)

concluded5 that the

stability of Hong Kong in the run-up to the handover to the PRC

depends on the maintenance of political and commercial confidence in

the Territory. Hong Kong's sound economic performance and the ascendancy of economic reformers in Peking bode well for this.

However, the PRC leadership remains highly suspicious of British policy, and their statements and actions, such as the hostile response

to the Governor's proposals for democratic reform, can (and often do)

damage confidence. The Chinese maintain the right to intervene if, in

their view, Hong Kong appeared to be descending into chaos or if HMG

had reneged on the Joint Declaration. They might also adopt this

5

JIC(91) (N) 1 1991.

-

The Threat To Hong Kong, dated 10 January

3

SECRET UK EYES A

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