perceptio
lessening Bolist
fam milorad
1.
Here Kang
and
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breach of the DCA by not paying the full amount due for the 1992/3 fourth quarter payment and the desire to avoid more political trouble in LEGCO than is absolutely necessary may well lead them to conclude that they this is the least painful option.
Given that the HKG have no reserve powers over LEGCO and we have no realistic means of forcing them to pay, they are probably
right.
Conclusion
This
word de
significant politics/military decisie
which would meet collective dicascion dy' Ministers - perhaps in ORD(K)
jein
10. The operational arguments are not decisive. Reduction to one battalion in Hong Kong could lead to an unquantifiable increase in the risk of a major internal security problem there getting
He wart cafe of precipitating
my Early Chinese takeover. out of hand and/or the Chinese intervening. Bringing an extra battalion into the ETP would provide a modest amelioration of overstretch. It would probably make the Hong Kong government's life easier in that it would remove a potential political problem at time when they have more than enough to deal with (though it would not necessarily lead to early financial savings for them). On balance, it is likely to be financially disadvantageous to the MOD. On the other hand, the Hong Kong government may force us into paying some or all of any additional costs by simply setting limits on the amount of money they are prepared to pay under the
DCA.
taking
accoust of the Lovernor's
views.
faster
л
#
down
garris
11. In the end it may come down to a choice between being helpful to Mr Patten and accepting the probability of extra costs on the defence budget; or proceeding as originally planned in the knowledge that we may in any event be forced into additional expenditure if Mr Patten insists that the financial consequences of meeting the DCA costs of a militarily viable garrison are too
much for the Hong Kong domestic political market to bear.
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Х
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