TNAG-2675-FCO40-3872-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 166

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they cannot be ruled out, are ones which all parties will be anxious to avoid. From a political point of view, it seems likely that a more rapid run-down of the garrison would be welcomed by the Hong Kong government and LEGCO for the financial savings that would result, though there may be some concern at what may be seen as a visible reduction in British commitment in Hong Kong, particularly if the withdrawal

withdrawal takes place at a time when

relations with China are strained.

6. In the UK the addition of a further uncommitted infantry battalion would provide welcome additional flexibility. Tour intervals for the infantry as a whole would increase from 16

months to 17 on the basis of current commitments, from 13 to 14

if an additional battalion were sent to former Yugoslavia, and

from 9 to 10 for a two brigade deployment there. However, there are currently no barracks planned to be available, though a major

deployment to former Yugoslavia might throw up rattle accommodation. From an Army manning point of view the early amalgamation of the two Gurkha battalions would cause significant disruption. Of the two battalions due to be amalgamated only 2GR is currently in Hong Kong: 6GR is not due to arrive from Brunei until July 1994 and starts the amalgamation process almost immediately thereafter. It is hard to see how this timetable could be advanced significantly without a major alteration to the existing Gurkha arms plot and/or a change in the battalions to be amalgamated. This is likely to be detrimental to the morale of the Brigade which is already relatively fragile. Resettlement facilities in Nepal are also fully stretched and would be very hard pressed to cope with an additional surge. All this points towards the amalgamation being made in 1994/5 as planned rather than in 1993/4, though that need not necessarily prevent the UK battalion being

being brought back before the amalgamation was

complete.

7. Politically, while it would be possible to represent any easement of tour intervals positively, the fact that we have had

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