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MDHOAN 0141
fundamental question of whether there should be more rapid run-down to a single, symbolic battalion in Hong Kong. The MOD's present premise is that the garrison should stay at what they consider to be the minimum militarily viable size (two battalions) until as close as possible to
to the final withdrawal (ie the last remaining Gurkha battalion would disband in the autumn of 1996 Leaving a single UK battalion). An alternative would be to reduce much more quickly to a single UK battalion and try to make commensurate savings on support. Even on the most optimistic timetable I doubt that this would show much reduction in costs until 1994/95, but might offer a much sharper decline from then. There are a number of quite serious disadvantages: the perception that we were scaling down our commitment to Hong Kong, the Chinese angle, the disruption to MOD's forward planning etc. If you did want to go down this route, I expect that the issue would need to be discussed in OPD (K). Our instinct here is that it will be better to stick with the present broad shape of the run-down but to look rigorously at garrison support costs for savings. You might use your response to Mr Rifkind to spell out your thoughts on this key issue.
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