TNAG-2674-FCO40-3871-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 165

Shape Car Showing more rapid decline i "La costs?

Dank' understand.

HKA 063/1 FREN

Reference

02 FEB 1993

'I think are

SECRET UK EYES A

My Bunke.

need a

Letter from

DESK OFFICER DEX

PA

Mr Ricketts

6

to man to reach

Heron tomorrow commenting at official level a le paper. Points to fover

art: (a) below [Surprite that mas appear to be mak Profil); 乱

; A

more analy fix in para ll of the

politics in les to a the need to show

"declining trend for the garita THE HONG KONG GARRISON WITHDRAWAL PLAN Costs ; a fit more about handling the

Chinese; and a marker Hat FCO/HKG Coll de expected to pay her 1. You asked for my views on the draft paper from Martina RN Howard and whether there are any aspects we should draw to the attention of Ministers while the paper is in draft. In my view the main points of interest of the paper are as follows: destas med

a) The wish of the MOD to keep hidden from HKG and the Governor the fact that the gross "long term costing" (LTC) costs of the Garrison (which roughly represent the marginal costs) are less than the 65% of the Full costs which HKG pay.

b) The abandonment of "stronger for longer", by the reduction of the Garrison to 2 battalions (by the amalgamation of the two existing Gurkha Regiments) in the second half of 1984 rather than 1985.

c) Agreement in principle for making public the withdrawal plan. This is supported by the Governor but SEC (O) (C) has fears that it could make difficulties if plans are amended.

d) A decision, for planning purposes that a RN task force be regarded as the preferred option with a firm decision being made after costing and other details have been worked out.

2.

вы

do

recommend

Although I have reservations about keeping the information in a) from the Governor, the main question arises from d). Any task force would be extremely expensive (SEC(O)(C) estimate between £5 million and £50 million). In fact so expensive that there could never be any question of the FCO paying for it. I therefore think that we could let it progress to Ministers in this caveatted form, although perhaps we should clear this with

NPDD.

could

3. On a general point I think the paper could be more forthcoming on the likely Chinese attitudes to some of these changes. They would I am sure be very much opposed to the RN task force. I do not however disagree with any of the papers reccommendations.

RAJBut

RAJ Bunten

25 January 1992

CODE 18-77

SECRET UK EYES A

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