TNAG-2674-FCO40-3871-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 126

101125Z

REFERRED HD/HKD FOR DIST ADV LNMDAN 3417 PEHPAN 6764

SECR

DD AC 3OZ FCOLN

FM PERIN TO FCOLN 101041Z MAR

GRS 351

SECRET

FM PEKING

TO DESKBY 101130Z FCO

TELNO 352

OF 101041Z MARCH 93

INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, UKREP JLG HONG KONG

PERSONAL FOR RICKETTS, HKD

HONG KONG PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR

HONG KONG TEL NO 342: GARRISON WITHDRAWAL

C

DMH

1 I AM GRATEFUL TO THE GOVERNOR FOR REPEATING TO ME HIS TUR. THE ISSUES HE RAISES ARE ESSENTIALLY UK/HONG KONG, BUT INEVITABLY THERE IS A CHINESE DIMENSION TOO.

2. AS SEEN FROM HERE THE CHINESE COULD REACT BADLY TO A DECISION TO WITHDRAW THE SECOND GURKHA BATTALION AS EARLY AS 1994. THEY WOULD SEE IT AS DESIGNED AT LEAST IN PART TO MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT AND CONTROVERSIAL FOR THEM TO INTRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT PLA GARRISON IN 1997. THEY MIGHT ALSO WORRY THAT WITH A REDUCED GARRISON WE MIGHT BE LESS ABLE TO MAINTAIN PROPER CONTROL OVER HONG KONG IN THE RUN- UP TO 1997 (FEARS THAT WE MIGHT ALLOW ''CHAOS'' TO DEVELOP ARE NEVER FAR FROM THE SURFACE).

3. WE HAVE DISCUSSED THE PACE OF GARRISON WITHDRAWAL WITH THE CHINESE IN THE PAST (THE MAIN OBJECTIVE THEN BEING TO GET SOME HANDLE ON THE POST-1997 PLA PRESENCE SO AS TO MINIMISE THE DAMAGE IT WILL DO TO CONFIDENCE ETC): IT WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR THE DEPARTMENT TO CHECK WHAT IF ANY COMMITMENTS WE HAVE OUTSTANDING. THE CHINESE ARE IN ANY CASE LIKELY TO ARGUE THAT THE JD BINDS US TO CONSULT THEM ON A MATTER WHICH BEARS ON HONG KONG'S STABILITY SHORTLY BEFORE THE TRANSFER OF GOVERNMENT.

4. THOUGH IT IS A LESSER POINT, CHINESE SUSPICIONS COULD ALSO BE AROUSED BY MOVES TO PUT THE WORK AND LIFE OF THE GARRISON ON A MORE AUSTERE FOOTING. THEY WOULD BE INCLINED TO SUSPECT THAT THIS WAS NOT JUST GOOD HOUSE-KEEPING.

5. ON THE OTHER HAND IT WOULD ALSO BE DAMAGING IF LEGCO WERE TO VOTE DOWN APPROPRIATIONS FOR DEFENCE COSTS PROPOSED BY THE ADMINISTRATION. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD NOT BE A DIRECT THREAT TO THE PLA (SINCE CHINA IS TO PAY ITS GARRISON'S COSTS) IT WOULD SET ALL SORTS OF ALARM BELLS RINGING. IT COULD FOR EXAMPLE BE TAKEN AS PROOF THAT DESPITE OUR PROFESSED COMMITMENT TO EXECUTIVE-LED GOVERNMENT WE HAD RAISED UP AN IRRESPONSIBLE AND UNCONTROLLABLE LEGCO WHICH WAS ABLE AND WILLING TO INTERFERE WITH SOME OF THE EXECUTIVE'S MOST VITAL RESPONSIBILITIES.

MCLAREN

YYYY

PEHPAN 6764