TNAG-2674-FCO40-3871-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 114

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REFERRED TO SIR J COLES FOR DISTRIBUTION ADVICE LNMDAN. 9866 HMLNAN 0341

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PERSONAL FOR SIR JOHN COLES, DUSS, FROM GOVERNOR

MY TELNOS 2642 AND 2681 AND YOUR TELNO 1599 OF 1992: GARRISON WITHDRAWAL

1.

SINCE THE EXCHANGE OF TURS IN NOVEMBER 1992, I HAVE DISCUSSED THE QUESTION OF THE GARRISON WITHDRAWAL WITH THE DEFENCE SECRETARY IN JANUARY AND SIR CHRISTOPHER FRANCE IN FEBRUARY. DURING THESE MEETINGS IT BECAME CLEAR THAT CONSIDERABLE WORK IS NEEDED TO CONVINCE THE MOD OF THE IMPORTANCE AND URGENCY, OF REDUCING DEFENCE COSTS IN REAL TERMS EACH YEAR. WITHOUT SUCH CUTS, FOR REASONS THAT I EXPLAIN BELOW, I SEE VERY GREAT DIFFICULTIES IN MAINTAINING LEGCO SUPPORT FOR THE DEFENCE COSTS AGREEMENT. BEFORE WE TAKE THIS WHOLE ISSUE FURTHER WITH THE GARRISON HERE AND WITH MOD, I WANTED TO SEEK FCO VIEWS ON HOW WE SHOULD PROCEED.

ROLE OF THE GARRISON

2. SINCE THE 1950S IT HAS BEEN ACCEPTED THAT THE GARRISON COULD NOT RESIST A PLA INVASION OF HONG KONG. THEIR MAIN ROLE IN RECENT YEARS, APART FROM PROVIDING A VISIBLE REMINDER OF BRITISH SOVEREIGNTY, HAS BEEN TO MAN THE BORDER IN ORDER TO PREVENT ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND TO SUPPORT THE MARINE POLICE AGAINST SMUGGLING AND TERRITORIAL INCURSIONS AT SEA. THEIR INTERNAL SECURITY ROLE WAS LAST EXERCISED IN 1967. IT IS EXTREMELY HARD TO SEE CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH IT WOULD BE EXERCISED AGAIN. IN THE RUN UP TO 1997, IF THERE WERE A BREAKDOWN OF INTERNAL ORDER, I WOULD ENVISAGE THAT IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY TO USE THE POLICE WHO NOW MAN THE BORDER TO REINFORCE THOSE ON THE STREETS, AND TO USE THE ARMY TO REPLACE THE POLICE ON THE BORDER. IT MUST BE ARGUABLE WHETHER IN-PLACE FORCES OF THE PRESENT SIZE ARE NECESSARY FOR THAT TASK. IF THERE WAS A REAL NEED TO DEPLOY THE ARMY ON THE BORDER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD, IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO SEND REINFORCEMENTS.

3.

FOLLOWING THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE ARMY FROM BORDER DUTIES, THE MAIN OPERATIONAL ROLE OF THE GARRISON AT PRESENT IS LIMITED TO ROYAL NAVY SUPPORT OF THE MARINE POLICE AND, ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LESSER TASK, ARMY SUPPORT OF THE POLICE IN THE NON-URBAN AREAS IN ANTI-SMUGGLING SURVEILLANCE.

4.

FOR ALL THE ABOVE REASONS, I THINK THE PURPOSE OF MOD'S 1993 REVIEW SHOULD BE TO IDENTIFY WAYS TO SPEED UP THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE GARRISON. IN PRACTICE THAT WOULD AT LEAST MEAN WITHDRAWING A SECOND GHURKA BATTALION IN 1994 RATHER THAN IN 1995. BUT FOR THE COST REASONS SET OUT BELOW IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY ALSO BE NECESSARY TO IDENTIFY ADDITIONAL SAVINGS QUICKLY.

COSTS

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