CONFIDENTIAL
2 -
Although
stability
China remains committed to preserving and prosperity in Hong Kong, a trigger such as the death of Deng Xiaoping or Zhao Ziyong or a collapse in the Chinese economy, could set off widespread chaos, resulting in illegal immigration the border and and large scale demonstrations locally in sympathy with mainland dissident factions. It is not however envisaged that demonstrations of this nature could not be managed as effectively as in 1989.
pressure
at
5.
certainty
Given the
of reversion of sovereignty to China in 1997, it is most unlikely that China would wish to foment unrest in Hong Kong in circumstances of instability or unrest such as localised disputes or other flash incidents. On the contrary, she could be expected to exercise a moderating influence where her ultimate political objectives were not at stake.
The Kuomintang
6.
desire
pressure
The
to
Kuomintang continue
continues to demonstrate a
its political and economic in Hong Kong. There are no signs that it is countenance any direct conflict with the Government or the mainland Chinese in Hong
prepared to
Hong Kong Kong.
Triad Societies
7.
The public perception of the threat posed by triads to law and order in Hong Kong was heightened in 1990 by blatant triad displays for new property developments. As a result of positive action by the Police this has ceased and the triads have returned to their traditional low profile. It should be noted that triads and other organised criminal gangs do not seek to create instability since this would inhibit their illicit activities.
CONFIDENTIAL
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