SECRET
FM HONG KONG
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 1182
OF 191154Z JULY 1993
SECRET
TOP COP Q DIST?
INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG
(10)
YOUR TELNO 666: LOCALISATION POLICY
1016/1 HITA 016/1
DOSK
TwcX
02 AUG 1993
71
067735
MDHIAN 9327
GOOD TIME-TO-CHANGE
I AGREE WITH YOU THAT THERE WILL NEVER BE THIS POLICY. NOR IS THERE ANY WAY OF PRESENTING A CHANGE WHICH IS LIKELY TO DEFUSE CHINESE ANTIPATHY. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES WE HAD ALREADY CONSIDERED CAREFULLY WHETHER IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO POSTPONE A CHANGE UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTORAL TALKS. BUT UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT A PRACTICAL POSSIBILITY.
2. THE AECS HAS MADE IT CRYSTAL CLEAR THAT IT WILL NOT HOLD OFF LEGAL ACTION FOR ANY LONGER UNLESS WE ANNOUNCE A COMPLETE MORATORIUM ON LOCALISATION PENDING AN OUTCOME OF THE REVIEW. WE HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO PERSUADE THEM TO HOLD THEIR HAND UP TO NOW BY INDICATING CONFIDENTIALLY THAT A DECISION IS IMMINENT. A MORATORIUM WOULD SIGNAL THAT A CHANGE IN POLICY IS LIKELY AND INFLAME LOCAL STAFF ASSOCIATIONS. THE LATTER WOULD LOBBY THE CHINESE WHO WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY DEMAND CONSULTATION. THERE WOULD BE MORE PUBLIC DEBATE, HIGHLIGHTING THE BILL OF RIGHTS ASPECT, WHICH WOULD NO DOUBT FURTHER HARDEN THE CHINESE POSITION. AD HOC EXTENSIONS OF CONTRACTS IN SPECIFIC CASES WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE AECS, AND COULD NOT BE DONE WITHOUT ATTRACTING THE SAME KIND OF ATTENTION AS A MORATORIUM.
3. EVEN IF WE WERE ABLE TO POSTPONE FOR A FEW WEEKS, THERE WOULD BE LITTLE ADVANTAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE TALKS : INDEED IF WE ARE THEN IN A CRITICAL PHASE THE RISK OF CARRY OVER COULD BE EVEN GREATER THAN IT IS NOW. BUT ANOTHER PERHAPS EVEN GREATER DANGER WITH THE MORATORIUM ROUTE IS THAT AS A RESULT OF THE OPPOSING PRESSURES, WE MIGHT FIND OURSELVES PARALYSED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE OLD POLICY AND THE NEW. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GO NEITHER BACK BECAUSE OF THE BILL OF RIGHTS AND THE THREAT OF LEGAL ACTION, NOR FORWARD BECAUSE OF THE CHINESE, THE STAFF ASSOCIATIONS AND THE TALKS. THIS IS A RISK WHICH I AM NOT PREPARED TO TAKE.
4
·
I THEREFORE REMAIN CONVINCED THAT WE HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO STICK TO THE PATH WE PROPOSE, INFORMING THE CHINESE AND THE STAFF ASSOCIATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE ANNOUNCING THE CHANGE, AND BRACING
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