CONFIDENTIAL
115217 MDLIAN 3201
MANY OF THESE WOULD GO SO FAR AS TO APPLY FOR LOCAL TERMS. A SMALL NUMBER OF THEM HAVE ACTUALLY DONE SO TO DATE. IF CONSULTING THE CHINESE WERE A PRACTICAL POSSIBILITY, WE COULD ATTEMPT TO PORTRAY OURSELVES AS ALIGNING WITH THE BASIC LAW. HOWEVER THE CHINESE WOULD BE LIKELY TO REALISE, BECAUSE OF THE PUBLICITY THERE HAS BEEN HERE, THAT WE WERE REACTING TO A CHALLENGE UNDER THE BOR. THEY COULD SEE THE GRANTING OF LEGAL STATUS TO A LARGE NUMBER OF ''EXPATRIATES'' AS A BRITISH PLOT TO EXTEND INFLUENCE BEYOND 1997. THE CHINESE WOULD ALSO COME UNDER PRESSURE FROM LOCAL STAFF ASSOCIATIONS WHO ARE OPPOSED TO ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCALISATION POLICY AND FROM SOME POLITICAL GROUPS. IF PUT IN A POSITION OF HAVING TO FAVOUR LOCAL OFFICERS OR EXPATRIATES THE CHINESE WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY SIDE WITH THE FORMER. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTIES OF CONSULTATION IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD OFF A COURT CASE BY FOLLOWING THIS ROUTE.
10. WE COULD ON THE OTHER HAND TAKE NO INITIATIVE TO AMEND OUR POLICY, DEFEND THE CURRENT POLICY AS BEST WE CAN AND WAIT TO BE TAKEN TO COURT. IN DOING SO WE WOULD RECEIVE MORE SUPPORT FROM LOCAL STAFF ASSOCIATIONS AND SOME POLITICAL GROUPS. IF WE WON THE SUBSEQUENT COURT CASE, ALL WELL AND GOOD. HOWEVER IF WE WERE TO LOSE WE WOULD BE FACED IN THEORY WITH HAVING TO CONSULT THE CHINESE ON THE BASIS OF THE LOCALISATION POLICY HAVING BEEN FOUND TO BE DEFECTIVE UNDER HE BOR. THIS WOULD NOT ONLY RAISE THE SPECTRE OF A BRITISH CONSPIRACY BUT ALSO OPENLY CONFIRM THE CHINESE WORST SUSPICIONS ABOUT THE BOR, THUS PUSHING THEM TO AN IMMEDIATE DENUNCIATION OF THE BOR INSTEAD OF LETTING IT LIE UNTIL 1997.
11. AN ALTERNATIVE TO PARA 10, WHICH WE ARE BEGINNING TO FIND RELATIVELY ATTRACTIVE, WOULD BE TO USE A DEFEAT IN COURT AS A PRETEXT TO CHANGE THE POLICY AND TO IMPLEMENT THE NECESSARY CHANGES WITHOUT CONSULTING THE CHINESE. BETTER NOT TO CONSULT THEM IF WE KNOW IN ADVANCE THAT THEY WILL NEVER AGREE. IT WOULD THEN BE LEFT TO THE SARG TO DECIDE WHETHER TO REVERSE THE CHANGES. A DISADVANTAGE OF THIS APPROACH HOWEVER IS THAT THERE COULD BE A BACKLASH AGAINST EXPATRIATES WHO GENUINELY WANTED TO STAY IN HONG KONG AFTER 1997. IT WOULD ALSO IN ANY CASE RESULT IN THE CHINESE DENOUNCING THE BOR NOW.
12. WE SHALL FAX THE LEGAL ADVICE WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR TO MORRIS AND WOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR ANY COMMENTS. WE SHALL ALSO LET YOU KNOW WHEN WE HAVE RECEIVED FURTHER LEGAL ADVICE LOCALLY BUT THIS MAY TAKE A WHILE YET.
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