AB
CONFIDENTIAL
5.
The draft Home Office reply (flag A), to Hong Kong's letter of 28 August (flag B), opines that commencement in 1994 would not be too far from 1997, or inconsistent with what Ministers said (during the passage of the legislation) about the second tranche being "nearer to 1997". But the Home Office want to be clear that such timing would not be prejudicial to "people taking up sensitive posts near the end of the period" (ie, by implication, between 1995 and 1997). This concern was emphasised in Cabinet discussion of the scheme; although in public Ministers explained the need for a second tranche in the more general terms of paragraph 3 a) above. On balance, and subject to their caveat, I agree with Home Office officials that the advantages of proceeding rapidly with the second phase outweigh the disadvantages.
Advantages of a second tranche in 1994
6.
The Hong Kong Government expect to complete the first tranche by the end of 1993, and propose that the second tranche should begin immediately thereafter, on 4 January 1994. In this way Hong Kong would retain the momentum of the selection process as well as the staff expertise and resources built up during the first tranche. This would have obvious advantages in terms of efficiency and speed of processing, as well as being administratively more convenient (and cheaper) than deferring the second tranche and then having either to train a new team from scratch, or call back experienced staff from other duties. Hong Kong also see benefits to confidence because an early second tranche would meet the public demand that the safety exit should be available as soon as possible.
7. There may also be a political advantage in an early rather than a later second tranche. The Chinese were initially hostile to the scheme (which they regard as the "unilateral" issue of British passports to Chinese citizens), but later tempered their public statements so as not to alienate the Hong Kong civil service. The publicity attendant on any second tranche will re-focus attention on the issue and may rekindle Chinese animosity. If so it might be as well to get over this sooner rather than later, in order to allow the dust to settle, and give the Chinese time to adopt a more realistic position, well before the handover in 1997. (Nevertheless, the timing of the Order-in-Council will have to be considered carefully; it would be unfortunate if it were to coincide with the end of the difficult phase in Sino-British relations we are now entering).
Disadvantage of a second tranche in 1994
The disadvantage of an earlier second tranche is that it would not fit the criteria in paragraph 3 a) and b) (above), quite so well as would a tranche in, say, 1996:
send. tranche
JM
CONFIDENTIAL
2
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