TNAG-2630-FCO40-3821-Future-of-Hong-Kong-nationality-British-National-(Overseas)-1992 — Page 5

CONFIDENTIAL

XCC(92)187

that they apply within three months of the date of naturalization/ registration. The Order should also provide for the Governor, as issuing authority, to have a discretion to accept late applications where applicants have good reasons for not applying within their cut-off dates.

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Home Office and FCO Ministers have approved these proposals in principle. Therefore, if Members also approve this approach, the programme must start in mid-1993 or as soon thereafter as the legislative process allows. This is because, if everyone eligible to apply were to do so, the numbers would increasingly exceed our capacity to cope as 1997 drew nearer. It is unlikely that everyone will apply. But we have no way of predicting the actual numbers. We must therefore work on the assumption that most, if not all, eligible people will want BN(O) passports. For estimating purposes, we have assumed an uptake of 70%(5)*.

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An Order in Council will require approval by each House of Parliament. Therefore the timing will depend upon the Parliamentary timetable and enactment may take several months.

Registration/naturalization as BDTCs

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We do not propose a phased campaign for naturalization or registration as BDTCs. That would be seen by the Chinese as a plot to encourage people to become British nationals. But, as explained above, we can only guarantee to process applications received before April 1996. Even that depends on our being able to streamline procedures. If we cannot, the "guarantee" date would be 12 months earlier(6)*. To enable us to process applications in time, the Order in Council will need to impose a cut-off date: as early as 31 March 1995 or as late as 31 March 1996. Again, UK Ministers have approved the proposal in principle.

* Note (5): This is based on past and present statistical trends and some

guesswork about the effects of the publicity campaign.

* Note (6): Now, about two million people are eligible to apply for naturalisation/registration. In March 1996 there will be about 2.2 million. We have no basis for predicting how many people will wish to become BDTCs. But we will have a reasonable basis for doing so once we have assessed the response to the initial announcement of the phased programme.

Tage:

Executive Council

Tage