TNAG-2622-FCO40-3813-Visits-by-Alastair-Goodlad--Minister-of-State-for-Foreign-an-1992 — Page 5

CONFIDENTIAL

HKD 026/13

IIS

001407 MDHIAN 7810

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 2245

OF 040416Z SEPTEMBER 92

PART ONE OF TWO

PERSONAL FOR RICKETTS, HKD

TOP COPY Q DIST?

VISIT BY MR GOODLAD 4-9 SEPTEMBER: MOOD OF THE COMMUNITY

1. A COPY OF THIS TELEGRAM WILL BE GIVEN TO MR GOODLAD ON ARRIVAL. ANY INCONVENIENCE REGRETTED.

SUMMARY

риб

4/9.

2.

SINCE THE MINISTER OF STATE'S PREVIOUS VISIT TO HONG KONG IN MAY, THE MOOD OF THE COMMUNITY HAS REMAINED POSITIVE. THERE IS GENERAL RECOGNITION THAT THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DECISIONS WILL NOT TAKE PLACE TILL OCTOBER, AND THE PUBLIC DISPLAYS A MARKED ABSENCE OF EXCITEMENT DESPITE MAJOR ISSUES WHICH REMAIN UNRESOLVED. EVEN ON CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTEREST HAS SO FAR BEEN CONFINED PRINCIPALLY TO THE FUTURE COMPOSITION OF THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL RATHER THAN THE BROADER ISSUES. THIS MORE RELAXED ATTITUDE OWES A GREAT DEAL TO THE STURDY PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY, BUTTRESSED BY EXCELLENT HALF-YEAR GROWTH IN CHINA. ALTHOUGH SHARE PRICES HAVE FALLEN FROM THEIR JULY PEAK, OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS ROBUST. TRENDS ARE ENCOURAGING BOTH FOR LAW AND ORDER AND VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS.

A SUMMER RECESS

3. THE MINISTER OF STATE'S VISIT TO HONG KONG IN MAY AROUSED INTENSE INTEREST. THE PUBLIC WAS LOOKING FOR INDICATIONS OF HMG'S INTENTIONS ON THE PACE OF DEMOCRACY AND WAS CONCERNED ABOUT THE OUTCOME OF HIGH-LEVEL TALKS ON THE AIRPORT. FOUR MONTHS LATER, THE TERRITORY IS IN A LULL WHICH HAS PROVED TOO DEEP TO BE MUCH DISTURBED BY CAMPAIGNING FOR A BY-ELECTION IN A DIRECTLY- ELECTED LEGCO CONSTITUENCY AND WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY EXPLAINED BY LEGCO'S SUMMER RECESS.

4.

THIS UNUSUAL SUSPENSION OF HONG KONG'S NORMAL EXCITEMENT REFLECTS A SENSE OF PROBLEMS POSTPONED. BY COINCIDENCE, THE MAJOR DECISIONS AFFECTING THE TERRITORY'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FORTUNES WILL COME TOGETHER IN OCTOBER:

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CONFIDENTIAL