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MDTTAN 9637
CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL. HONG KONG WILL BE SUCH A MAJOR CENTRE OF BRITISH INTERESTS THAT IT WILL JUSTIFY A MAJOR POST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AND I SUSPECT IT WOULD MAKE MORE SENSE IN RESOURCE TERMS TO BUILD INTO THE CONSULATE GENERAL HERE A CAPACITY TO COVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA, THEREBY GIVING SENIOR STAFF IN HONG KONG (WHO WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE SENIOR THAN ANY WE MIGHT PUT INTO A GUANGZHOU POST) A ROLE AS WELL. THIS COULD BE BACKED UP WITH AN OFFICE IN GUANGZHOU RUN BY ONE OR TWO LOCAL STAFF WHO COULD MAKE APPOINTMENTS, FORWARD ENQUIRIES ETC WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BASE FOR VISITING HOME BASED STAFF RESIDENT IN HONG KONG,
4. THIS IS BASED ON COMMERCIAL AND RESOURCE CONSIDERATIONS. IT PRESUPPOSES CHINESE AGREEMENT TO SUCH AN ARRANGEMENT, AND LARGELY IGNORES THE POLITICAL FACTORS. SO FAR AS I AM AWARE, WE DO NOT YET KNOW TO WHAT EXTENT FROM JULY 1997 CONSULATES GENERAL IN HONG KONG (NOT ONLY OUR OWN) WILL BE PERMITTED BY THE CHINESE TO EMBRACE OTHER SOUTHERN PROVINCES IN THEIR CONSULATE AREAS. PRESUMABLY THE CHINESE SHOULD WELCOME THIS SINCE IT WOULD UNDERLINE THAT HONG KONG WAS PART OF CHINA. IF, PERVERSELY, THEY WERE TO INSIST THAT CONSULATE GENERALS HERE CONFINE THEMSELVES TO HONG KONG, THEN THAT WOULD CONSIDERABLY INCREASE THE CASE FOR A SEPARATE POST IN GUANGZHOU. NOR, I ASSUME, DO WE KNOW HOW OPEN THE BORDER WILL BE IN 1997. IF DIPLOMATIC AND LE STAFF CAN DRIVE FREELY, EITHER IN THEIR OWN CARS OR OFFICIAL TRANSPORT BETWEEN HONG KONG AND GUANGZHOU, THEN IT WOULD WEAKEN THE CASE FOR A SEPARATE POST IN GUANGZHOU. IF THE CHINESE WOULD NOT ACCEPT A LOCALLY ENGAGED STAFFED POST AS PROPOSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH, AN ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE THE SMALLEST POSSIBLE POST THAT THEY WOULD ACCEPT, HEADED BY A CONSUL, AND ALSO OPERATING LARGELY AS THE PROVIDER OF A BASE FOR REGULAR VISITING STAFF. IF THE CHINESE WOULD ACCEPT IT, IT COULD EVEN BE A ROTATING JOB FOR HONG KONG BASED STAFF. BUT IF THE CHINESE WOULD ACCEPT NONE OF THESE THEN THE CASE FOR A FULLY FLEDGED POST IN GUANGZHOU BECOMES STRONG PARTICULARLY IN COMMERCIAL TERMS, EVEN ALTHOUGH IT WOULD REQUIRE THE DUPLICATION OF ADMINISTRATION AND OTHER SUPPORT READILY AVAILABLE IN HONG KONG.
5. WE WOULD I THINK BE WISE TO WAIT A YEAR OR TWO BEFORE TAKING A DECISION. OUR VIEW WILL PRESUMABLY BE INFLUENCED BY PROGRESS WITH GORDON WU'S HIGHWAY, AND THE CHINESE ATTITUDE TO THE BORDER AFTER 1997, WHICH MAY CLARIFY SOON. WE WOULD NOT WISH, I ASSUME, TO OPEN A POST ONLY TO DECIDE A FEW YEARS LATER THAT IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS IT WAS NOT REALLY NECESSARY, SINCE I ASSUME THE
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