CONFIDENTIAL
175227 MDHIAN 2996 !
HE HAS
4. AS TO LEE'S PURPOSES IN PUSHING THIS CONSPIRACY THEORY IN PUBLIC, ONE CAN ONLY SPECULATE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HE SINCERELY BELIEVES THAT OUR TACTICS ARE ILL ADVISED AND THAT THERE MUST BE MORE TO OUR POLICY THAN WE SAY ON THE SURFACE. HE WILL NOT BE EASILY DISSUADED FROM THIS. LADY THATCHER TOLD ME SHE FIRMLY POOH-POOHED THE CONSPIRACY THEORY IN HER TETE-A-TETE WITH LEE ON 5 DECEMBER. (SHE APPEARS TO HAVE SPOKEN TO HIM IN TERMS SIMILAR TO THOSE SHE USED IN THE LORDS DEBATE). BUT WHY LEE KUAN YEW IS GOING PUBLIC IS ANOTHER MATTER. I UNDERSTAND HERE THAT HE LET THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE KNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TEXT OF HIS LECTURE AND THAT THIS WAS UNEXCEPTIONABLE HE APPEARS ONLY TO HAVE ALLOWED HIMSELF TO BE DRAWN INTO THE CONSPIRACY THEORY DURING QUESTION TIME. IT IS HIS STYLE TO SPEAK OUT WITHOUT FEAR OR FAVOUR. BEEN UNDERTAKING A SERIES OF VISITS AND SPEAKING ENGAGEMENTS IN RECENT MONTHS (PRETORIA TELNO 360, MANILA TELNO 466) TO KAZHAKSTAN, VIETNAM, TOKYO, SOUTH AFRICA, PHILIPPINES AND NOW HONG KONG, DISPENSING WISDOM ABOUT THE ASIAN PATH TO PROSPERITY AND THE IRRELEVANCE OF THE WESTERN DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM TO THAT. SINGAPORE IS TOO SMALL A STAGE FOR SOMEONE OF LEE KUAN YEW'S TALENTS. WITH AGE, HE SEEMS TO ADOPT AN EVER-MORE CONFUCIAN AND CHINESE PHILOSOPHICAL APPROACH. HE LISTENS TO NO-ONE, AND COWS HIS MINISTERS: SINGAPORE IS STILL, WHEN IT MATTERS, HIS FIEFDOM. IT WILL NOT BE EASY TO INFLUENCE HIM. HE ALMOST CERTAINLY HAS A WEATHER EYE COCKED ON PEKING: SINGAPORE SEES FOR ITSELF A SPECIAL COMMERCIAL ROLE IN A RAPIDLY GROWING CHINESE ECONOMY (DURING HIS LAST VISIT TO CHINA IN OCTOBER LEE KUAN YEW URGED SINGAPOREAN ENTREPRENEURS TO BE MORE ADVENTUROUS IN SEIZING SUCH OPPORTUNITIES). HE IS ALSO SAID TO BE CONCERNED THAT WESTERN, AND PARTICULARLY US, PRESSURE OVER HUMAN RIGHTS COULD DRIVE INTO A MORE NATIONALISTIC POSTURE, WITH CHINA POTENTIALLY ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES FOR REGIONAL STABILITY. BUT I DOUBT WHETHER HE REALLY WANTS TO EMBARRASS US OR MAKE DIFFICULTIES FOR HONG KONG. HE TOLD MR PATTEN LAST JULY THAT SINGAPORE HAD DECIDED THAT A THRIVING HONG KONG WAS IN SINGAPORE'S INTEREST, TOO, AND HE BELIEVES THAT.
5. I SHALL CONTINUE TO SPEAK TO APPROPRIATE INDIVIDUALS IN PRIVATE AS IN TUR, MAKING THE POINT ALSO THAT PROPAGATING THE CONSPIRACY VIEW IS UNHELPFUL AND ONLY MAKING A DIFFICULT PROBLEM MUCH WORSE FOR US. I SEE NO POINT IN SEEKING TO CONFRONT THE THESIS IN THE LOCAL MEDIA WHICH ARE FAITHFULLY REFLECTING LEE KUAN YEW'S VIEWS. BUT I WOULD RECOMMEND THAT THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEFENCE BE BRIEFED TO RAISE THE MATTER WITH HIM DURING HIS VISIT ON 10-11 JANUARY (I HAVE REQUESTED CALLS FOR MR RIFKIND ON LEE KUAN YEW AS
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