APR 01 '92 16:21 AMCONGEN/HK/ADM 852 845 1598
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Li Peng is under bitter attack for trying to hold growth down to 6 percent. There is a new wave of liberalization gathering force in China and this has gladdened hearts in Hong Kong. But it is important to emphasize that the new wave of liberalization in China has only gathered force in 1992; the revival of confidence in Hong Kong dates back to mid-1991, and the successful economic integration of Hong Kong and China has been a virtually continuous process except for a few months after June 1989.
Although there have been widespread expressions of skepticism about China's sincerity, so far Hong Kong's freedom has been maintained. People in Hong Kong can say what they want, write what they want, move where they want, practice whatever religion they want, associate with whomever they want. The basic freedoms of our Bill of Rights are intact in Hong Kong. Moreover, the strongest influence has so far turned out to be in the opposite direction: A limited measure of freedom has begun to spread along the coast of China, not because the leadership in Beijing desires it to spread (on the contrary, they fear it) but because contact with Hong Kong spreads new ideas and aspirations, and also because economic development carries with it travel, education, contact with foreigners, radio and television that receive foreign stations, employment outside state enterprises, and a bit of spending money, all of which contribute gradually but inexorably to freedom.
The China-Hong Kong Nexus
If present trends continue, future historians will say the Chinese economic takeoff was the greatest economic event of the twentieth century; that never before in human history had a fifth of the human race grown so rapidly; that it positively affected the lives of a larger proportion of the human race than any other development; that China got the development formula right primarily because China followed the examples of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea; that the development spread outward from Hong Kong to Shenzhen to Guangdong to coastal China and gradually penetrated inward; that eventually the politics of China was changed favorably by the emergence of the same social forces that forced democratization in Taiwan and South Korea; and that throughout this process Hong Kong was the freest society in Asia as well as being the principal owner, manager, and profiteer from the Chinese takeoff.
This description is not an idle dream. The process is well under way. It has been under way for thirteen years, which is a long time for an economic boom. The economic integration of Hong Kong and China is an accomplished fact. The gradual spread of freedom--from a very low base--has become irreversible. (For instance, Newsweek International recently reported that illegal satellite dishes for receiving Hong Kong television are ubiquitous in Guangdong and that they are largely installed and maintained by Chinese Army personnel.)
China frequently reiterates its principal promises to Hong Kong, as outlined in the Joint Declaration and codified in the Basic Law. Its reason for doing so is economic necessity. The Chinese economic takeoff is firmly rooted in Hong Kong. Most foreign investment in
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