TNAG-2608-FCO40-3799-International-support-from-the-USA-regarding-the-future-of-H-1992 — Page 60

1973. The same economic and sociological processes are underway

in Fujian Province (particularly Xiamen) where Taiwan investment

and tourists are pouring in. This leads one to ask, "Are Hong

Kong and Taiwan having a bigger effect on the PRC than vice

versa?"

2) Because the economies of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the PRC

are becoming more interdependent, I believe that the security of

Hong Kong and Taiwan are enhanced. It is hard to imagine that

the PRC would intentionally sacrifice rapidly-growing economic

interests in Hong Kong and Taiwan to reap the bitter fruits of

confrontation. To put it bluntly, the PRC is already the biggest

"stockholder" in Hong Kong--it behooves Beijing not to drive down

the values of those "shares. Hong Kong's security ultimately

rests in the self-interest of Beijing. While we cannot exclude

the possibility of policies or developments in China that would

undermine those interests (e.g. events such as Tiananmen and its

aftermath are indeed sobering), the best guarantor of Hong Kong'

future is its strong economic utility to the PRC. To the degree

that Hong Kong and Taiwan's security is enhanced, this helps lay

a solid foundation for productive U.8.-China relations; conflict

over Hong Kong or Taiwan would undermine the basis for productive

bilateral Sino-American ties,

3) The third major American interest derives from the first

two--namely that Hong Kong is a tremendous platform from which America can develop its economic and cultural ties, not only in

"Greater China," but the East Asian region more broadly.

Hong

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