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4. On Asian security, there was some discussion of Kissinger's warning that if Japan built up its military power the US might have a China card to play. The Japanese did not want to re-militarise: they did want the US to remain engaged. Shiina argued particularly strongly (as usual) for the US presence. they withdrew, Japan might at the worst face nuclear blackmail from China with no American nuclear umbrella (not that the US nuclear umbrella was very credible even now). That would be very awkward.
5.
If
On Japanese politics, Shiina said he hoped the Takeshita faction would split. That might lead to a fundamental realignment and reform. (Unfortunately Hosokawa had left before this part of the discussion).
6.
The next full meeting will be on 5-8 March on an island near Numazu. It sounds very nice! Three themes were identified and broadly agreed after discussion:-
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a) Hong Kong/South China in an Asia/Pacific context. Governor of Hong Kong intends to take part in a personal capacity. Swire wondered if this would cause any sensitivity in Peking I think probably not, but that is better judged by the Hong Kong experts.
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b) the global political/economic/security system following the end of the Cold War. This would include the role of the UN, and Howell said he wanted to talk about Japanese membership of the Security Council since otherwise the FCO would get it wrong.....
It is clear from remarks in a separate context over the preceeding weekend, in John Boyd's presence, that David Howell favours Security Council status for Japan
c) adjustment of industrial and social structures in the UK and Japan, particularly whether there were changes in Japan's industrial culture post-bubble.
7. In addition, there is to be discussion of how to improve UK-Japan exchanges as follow-up to the Japan Festival. Howell and Eberle floated the various current ideas - next generation forum, scholarships, conference on Hong Kong. All received a positive but rather muted reception. Blakenham noted that a lot was already going on on the cultural side. Yamamoto suggested a much larger conference in the mid-90s to diffuse some of the results of 2000 Group discussion. In the margins, there was more discussion of all of this. Jim Eberle worked particularly hard on the next generation forum but without finding a solution to organisation at this end. He will write more formally to sound out Yamamoto. Meanwhile we continue to trail the bait past Japanese companies.
8.
All this was extremely friendly, positive etc, but I left feeling vaguely dissatisfied. While David Howell has done well to bring in new faces on the British side, the Japanese participants
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