B.E. TOKYO..
TUE 11 AUG 92 18:48.
PG.06
CONFIDENTIAL
粥
South East Asia/China
4.
:
Yes. Your visit highly welcome, Very important meanwhile to consult closely on the region (vide the fuss I made about Cambodia). As you rightly say later (your paragraph 8) the Japanese are beginning to worry about reported Chinese purchases of cheap Russian equipment. Leaving aside a concern for strategic stability and the question of the Spratlys, it confirms their dislike of Russian behaviour at the eastern end. Very important, next, to keep the Japanese engaged in Hong_Kong a point that comes up naturally and repeatedly here. I have done my bit in initial calls. Japanese interest is political, commercial and obvious. We can continue to exploit this. Chris Patten will of course be welcome here at any time Current reckoning is that he will come in the Hong Kong trade context in November. While the UK/Japan 2000 Group may well want to put Hong Kong on the agenda of its meeting here next March, I rather share the thinking behind your letter that personal attendance by the Governor might unbalance the meeting and provide meat for conspiracy theorists. would have thought moreover that a UK/Japanese gathering to look at Southern Chinese business prospects from Hong Kong might more safely be business-to-business or something chaired by the British Trade Commissioner but that is not my call.
Northern Territories
I
5. I agree with you. We might at one stage have floated solutions. This is now beyond us, More activity might anyway carry political or legal dangers. Highly political obviously at the Moscow end. Here most Japanese reckon that they are on a winning streak given their economic leverage. In fact, given Yeltsin's troubles at home, the Japanese may have manoeuvred him into a no-win situation, the least bad option becoming an ostentatious refusal to sell. Even so I doubt whether they would relish advice from HMG to cool it. Any advice in due course on how to get out of an impasse of their own making would need to be carefully phrased.
Europe
6. I cannot think of anything new. I am glad to note (Tucker's CSCE Unit) teleletter of 16 July to Fry) that I can accept thanks for our help over the CSCE arrangement with a clear conscience.
Arms Control
7.
very important to keep the Japanese engaged and up to speed, not least because their objectives and ours do not always coincide. They are rightly proud of their initiative on the conventional arms register and see it as a good example of their new international resolve. They should be receptive to further suggestions. I am not blind to the downside, medium term, of a constructive Japan in the Security Council context; but as I see it we singly cannot afford to let Japanese energies go unchannelled.
Central Asia
8. Worth noting that Japanese business interests may well become more engaged once the Central Asian Republics are on the DAC list and Japanese aid can start to flow. No bad idea, certainly, to compare notes on the region in Novembar, though the region's poverty and low economic activity imply a major push before donors
CIMFIDENTIAL
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