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positions differently. Under certain election systems it would be possible technically for any one of them to take a far greater number of the directly elected seats than its electoral support would indicate.
3.4
The promotion of a legitimate political position can often be better done under electoral system rather than another and a common problem for politicians is whether there is greater benefit to be obtained for one's country, constituency or party by seeking short term advantages as opposed to long term political development. In Hong Kong at the present time, with the necessity to work within the Basic Law, this is a particularly acute problem. The lack of direct elections for past LegCo representation inevitably makes it more difficult to achieve it fully now. We have personal views on the absence of past progress towards democracy but we confine ourselves in this report to the situation as it is.
3.5
The first- and second - elections to LegCo will be crucial to the development of political parties, the entrenchment of healthy democratic ideals amongst Hong Kong residents, and further progress after 1997. The method of election will have the greatest influence and is therefore our first consideration.
4. Electoral Systems
4.1
The 'X' vote, or "First-Past-The-Post" (FPTP) system, as operated for most elections in the UK and which does not require a majority for election but only a plurality for one candidate over another, could enable candidates to be elected with perhaps little more than 30% of the votes cast. Candidates' attitude towards the PRC will no doubt be amongst the key issues in the September election, but the electoral system used will be influential in determining how dominant it is. Under FPTP, if support for the party stressing the most leading position is spread evenly across all the constituencies, its supporters could conceivably win all eighteen seats even though it only commanded a minority of votes.
4.2
Further, given the present disparities in electorate between constituencies, (see paras 4.5 to 4.9 below) its support could theoretically be concentrated in less than half the seats and still win most of the eighteen on an even smaller total vote. The potential problem is compounded by the current proposal for nine two member seats with the 'X' vote. If a party is sufficiently effective, and its voters sufficiently disciplined or determined in support of a particular policy, it is as likely to take both seats as one single member seat on the same percentage support! Thus if votes are spread fairly evenly in a constituency across : at least three parties, plus independents, 30 per cent support could well give one party two seats rather than one.
4.3
We pass no judgement on the merits of the political issues but simply point out potential pitfalls. Attitudes to PRC are clearly likely to be an important factor in determining how people vote and it is important to consider the influence of the electoral system on the campaign and on the context within which those altitudes are best expressed. If it is thought that Hong Kong's future would not be best served by encouraging political parties to over-simplify or to over-emphasise the single issue, then an electoral system that better weights opinion and which ensures positive voting should be considered. If, on the other hand, it is thought that attitudes to PRC should be the touchstone of the election campaign then the system currently proposed may well
assist that view, even though it cannot guarantee accurate representation of political opinion.
4.4
The advent of formal political parties in Hong Kong is remarkably recent and it is difficult to assess exactly how they will evolve in the months up to the September elections. It was respresented to us that, because of the colonial history and the necessity to support the free enterprise system, the political system in Hong Kong would turn out very different to that elsewhere. It appears true at the moment that the economic policy parameters of the Hong Kong political system are drawn rather more narrowly than in most countries but within those parameters it was still possible to identify three broad groupings that give expression to the traditional left/right/centre spectrum of politics- quite apart from the smaller political organisations that have a lively involvement in one arca or one aspect of politics, and which must not be disregarded nor disadvantaged.
4.5
In our opinion the choice of election system will have a considerable bearing on the development of Hong Kong's political structures. There is always a careful balance to be drawn between the legitimate role of the parties, the rights of individual members and candidates, and the opportunity of the citizens as a whole to participate in, and to influence, decision making. Hong Kong's enthusiasm for economic free enterprise is unlikely to accept a political system which stifled individuality and which permitted parties to exercise substantial control over the electoral process. The considerable size of the proposed constituencies for the direct elections to LegCo, ranging from 388,000 to 799,000 population (note: depending on the success or otherwise of the registration process - para 8.2 below-the electorate will be considerably less than these figures) will give a disproportionate advantage to territory wide political parties, particularly under the electoral system currently favoured, even though this would run counter to the instinctive individuality of Hong Kong. Under this system, to maximise their representation, the political parties will also have to campaign for disciplined party ticket voting so that a potentially more popular candidate can “carry” a colleague in the same constituency.
4.6.1
Choices of electoral system are, of course, somewhat circumscribed when only eighteen seats are available for a population of over five million. Independent legislatures of similar size consist of around 150 elected members. However, given the compactness of Hong Kong, it would still be possible to consider multi-member constituencies and preferential voting. Assuming that no single constituency should cross the border between the New Territories and Kowloon, Hong Kong Island etc, and taking the District Boards as the basic building blocks, the four constituencies shown on the next page would be feasible.
4.6.2
It would be difficult to split the Kowloon seat into two constituencies of four and three each because both obvious divisions produce too close an equality of numbers to be able to allocate the extra seat fairly.
4.6.3
Under the Single Transferable Vote (STV), as used in Ireland, voters would simply number their ballot paper in order of preference, with their second and subsequent preferences only being counted when their earlier preferred candidates have either been elected or excluded. Candidates have to secure a "quota" of votes to be elected, their surplus votes being transferred pro rata. STV maximises the voter's choice and preserves the optimum balance between parties, accountability and proportionality.
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