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a moderating influence.
If however Central control in China
were to breakdown completely the threat to Hong Kong could be
extremely serious as such a
incursions by elements of
criminals.
remote.
development
the PLA,
could lead to armed
paramilitaries
or
At present, the likelihood of such a breakdown is
The Kuomintang (KMT)
7.
At present
neither the KMT nor the KMT Intelligence Service (KIS) poses a significant threat to Hong Kong, largely because of Taiwan's anxiety not to risk damaging its overall political and economic interests in the Territory and because of
However, the KIS still
uses Hong Kong as a base from which to run covert subversive activity against China.
our
effective counter-intelligence.
Triad Societies
8.
Triad Societies are not centrally organised but will exploit any breakdown of law and order to consolidate power and influence.
There is
no evidence that the KMT could exert a controlling influence over the Triad Societies, nor has it shown any recent inclination to try, but the CCP has established
contact with Triad leaders and is seeking to exercise influence.
We believe this to be a United Front initiative rather than an attempt to disrupt stability in Hong Kong.
Public Mood
9.
The issue of the Territory's relations with China has a major impact on public mood and the current dispute over the financing of the new airport and related projects has caused concern, although there is a general air of optimism that eventually a solution will be found and the projects will proceed. This optimism suggests confidence is high and this is largely because, economically Hong Kong remains stable, increasingly prosperous and fully employed. It is, inter alia, benefits of its involvement in the further opening China and the year has seen none of the "Hong Kong
enjoying the
up of South
Jitters" that led to bank runs in 1991.
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is
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