wpu.rmimf92sept27
CONFIDENTIAL
and
China. Further growth depends on recover in markets for final exports (mainly US). Inflation has fallen (9.3 per cent year-year in June, 12.3 per cent in June
1991) but is threatened by low interest rates (prime lending rate 6 per cent, 3- month interbank rate around 3 per cent), due to exchange rate link with US$, domestic supply constraints. Real wages rose (+3 per cent in manufacturing,
in services
1991) due to tight labour market +6 per cent in
(2 per
unemployment in 1991).
10.
-
cent
Chris Patten sworn into office as Governor in July expected to stay until Patten's down-to-earth populist style (arrival in suit rather than uniform, tours by public transport, etc) well received by local press.
1997 retrocession.
Key Statistics
1989
1990
1991
1992f
1193f
Nominal GDP, US$bn
64.0
71.3
81.4
Per capita GDP, US$
11,254
12,492
14,138
Real GDP growth %
2.8
3.0
3.9
5.0
5.0
Year-year inflation %
10.2
9.8
12.0
9.5
8.5
Year-year M2 Growth %
19.9
22.4
13.3
Fiscal Surplus, % of GDP
1.1
0.7
3.5
1.1
-1.1
Foreign Reserves $bn
19.1
24.7
28.9
Vis.Trade Account, % of GDP
1.1
-1.0
-2.5
-2.9
Current Account, % of GDP
8.0
5.0
2.9
2.7
Notes Visible trade account measure FOB-CIF.
-
flows.
HKG.
No data on IPD flows or external debt.
Current Account data excludes IPD
Forecast figures published by
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