VISIT TO CHINA BY RT HON SIR EDWARD HEATH
DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA
CHINA
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POLITICAL
1. In the three years since Tiananmen there has been a continuing power struggle, of greater or lesser intensity, centring on how far and how fast economic reform can proceed without threatening the leading role of the Communist Party in Chinese political life. The collapse of the Soviet Union and of socialist regimes in Eastern Europe has brought reformers, conservatives and pragmatists alike, to accept the necessity of meeting the economic expectations and demands of the population in order to maintain political stability and avoid social unrest. Recent debate has centred on the speed and extent of reform, the emphasis that should be placed on ideology and how the new China should present itself both domestically and internationally.
2. The 14th Party Congress, expected in October, may well see changes in the Politburo and the Standing Committee. Premier Li Peng's position is considered under threat. Following the Congress it should be possible to determine the balance of power within the Party. At present, it appears that the "paramount leader" Deng Xiaoping and the reformers are in the ascendant.
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3. When Deng made his trip to South China and the Special Economic Zones (SEZS) of Shenzhen and Zhuhai in February of this year, he called for a speeding up and deepening of the reform
At the time, Deng's visit process.
the first occasion he had
been seen in public for some months was interpreted as a sign of weakness, an indication that there was no other senior figure prepared to act for him. However, Deng's message has been spread and acted upon throughout China and even confirmed hardliners such as Chen Yun, Chairman of the Central Advisory Commission, have spoken out in support of economic reform.
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