TNAG-2504-FCO40-3643-National-People-s-Congress-and-Chinese-People-s-Political-Co-1992 — Page 16

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RESTRICTED

035703 MDLIAN 5239

COMMENT

7.

SIGNS OF A SPLIT IN THE LEADERSHIP, FOCUSSING ON THE POSITION OF LI PENG ARE GROWING. THE POSSIBILITY THAT DENG WILL USE

'POPULAR PRESSURE' AS EXPRESSED THROUGH MEMBERS OF THE NPC TO UNDERMINE HIS OPPONENTS (RATHER AS HE DID WITH THE DEMOCRACY WALL MOVEMENT IN 1979-1980, ALBEIT IN A VERY DIFFERENT FORM) IS AN INTRIGUING. THE VERDICT ON THE PREMIER'S WORK REPORT TO BE GIVEN BY THE DEPUTIES IN THEIR VOTING AT THE FINAL SESSION, WILL BE MORE INTERESTING THAN USUAL. AS EVER, THE MOST DIFFICULT THING IS TO PREDICT HOW AND WHEN THE LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE WILL COME INTO THE

OPEN. WE SHALL ADDRESS THESE QUESTIONS AT THE END OF THIS NPC SESSION.

MCLAREN

YYYY

DISTRIBUTION

161

ΜΑΙΝ

151

#

CHINA POLITICAL

FED

LEGAL ADVISERS

PUSD

INFO D

CONSULAR D

CRD

ECD (E)

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

EPC UNIT

ERD

HKD

JOINT DIRECTORATE

NEWS D

PLANNERS

RAD

SAD

SEAD

UND

EAPD/ODA//MS VOWLES

PS

PS/MRS CHALKER

PS/LORD CAITHNESS PS/MR LENNOX-BOYD

PS/PUS

MR LANKESTER MR APPLEYARD

CHIEF CLERK

SIR J COLES

MR AINSCOW

MISS SPENCER

MR MILES

MR GORE-BOOTH

MR BURNS

MR BONE

MR MANNING

ADDITIONAL

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