TNAG-2504-FCO40-3643-National-People-s-Congress-and-Chinese-People-s-Political-Co-1992 — Page 14

RESTRICTED

HKC

024/1

RESTRICTED

FM PEKING

TO PRIORITY FCO

TELNO 455

OF 30085OZ MARCH 92

ст

INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG, BTC HONG KONG, JSIS HONG KONG INFO PRIORITY UKREP JLG HONG KONG, MODUK, ACTOR INFO PRIORITY WASHINGTON, CANBERRA, TOKYO, SEOUL

035703

MDLIAN 5239

S

NPC: INTERIM ASSESSMENT

SUMMARY

1.

SIGNS THAT LI PENG IS OUT OF STEP WITH OTHER MEMBERS OF THE LEADERSHIP OVER THE DANGERS POSED BY 'LEFTISM' AND IMPLEMENTATION OF REFORM MEASURES. MEDIA COVERAGE MIXED. DENG'S VISIT TO

GUANGDONG FINALLY REPORTED IN THE NATIONAL PRESS.

DETAIL

OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE CURRENT SESSION OF THE NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS WILL BE MADE AFTER ITS CONCLUSION ON

2.

3 APRIL. THIS TELEGRAM GIVES AN INTERIM ACCOUNT.

3.

THE NPC MEETING IS BEING HELD AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF A LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE WHICH HAS BECOME MORE OVERT SINCE JANUARY. LI PENG'S FAILURE, IN HIS GOVERNMENT WORK REPORT, TO REPEAT THE CRITICISM OF LEFTISM MADE BY THE POLITBURO IN MARCH, HAS FUELLED SPECULATION OF A SPLIT IN THE LEADERSHIP. SUCH A SPLIT WOULD BE

BASED ON ATTEMPTS BY DENGISTS TO LEVEL CHARGES OF 'LEFTISM' OR FORMALISM (IE, IN THIS INSTANCE, LACK OF ENTHUSIASM FOR REFORM) AGAINST THEIR OPPONENTS. IN THIS SCENARIO, LI PENG WOULD BE THE LEADING TARGET. SINCE DELIVERING HIS REPORT ON 20 MARCH, LI PENG HAS NOT TAKEN ANY OPPORTUNITIES TO CRITICISE 'LEFTISM', WHILE MOST OTHER LEADERS (INCLUDING PLA LEADERS YANG BAIBING AND LIU HUAQING)

AS WELL AS NPC DEPUTIES AND PRESS COMMENTARIES HAVE DONE SO.

4. THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER INDICATIONS THAT LI PENG, AS HEAD OF THE STATE COUNCIL, IS OUT OF STEP WITH OTHER SECTIONS OF THE LEADERSHIP. ACCORDING TO 'CHINA DAILY' GENERAL SECRETARY JIANG ZEMIN TOLD A GROUP OF NPC DEPUTIES ON 24 MARCH THAT THE POLITBURO

HAD DECIDED TO SET UP SPECIAL GROUPS TO HAMMER OUT DETAILED MEASURES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF REFORM. SUCH A TASK WOULD NORMALLY

1

PAGE

RESTRICTED