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6.
ON THE OTHER HAND, DENG MAY FEEL THAT HE CANNOT AFFORD TO WAIT SO LONG. IF HE WERE TO DIE BETWEEN NOW AND THE PARTY CONGRESS, HIS CAMPAIGN TO ACCELERATE REFORM COULD COLLAPSE. HIS EXPERIENCE, DRAWN FROM SIXTY YEARS OF INNER-PARTY STRUGGLE, MUST TELL HIM TO PRESS HOME AN ADVANTAGE AND NOT ALLOW OPPONENTS THE CHANCE TO
REGROUP AND FIGHT BACK. ALTHOUGH THE POST-TIANANMEN ANTI-DENG ALLIANCE OF ECONOMIC CONSERVATIVES AND IDEOLOGICAL LEFTISTS IS ON THE DEFENSIVE, IT HAS NOT YET BEEN BEATEN. ANOTHER FACTOR ARGUING FOR ACTION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER IS THE NEED TO SELECT DEPUTIES TO THE 14TH PARTY CONGRESS. IT HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED BY THE PEKING PARTY ORGANISATION THAT ITS DEPUTIES WILL BE SELECTED AT A MEETING TO BE HELD IN JUNE. OTHER PROVINCIAL-LEVEL PARTY ORGANISATIONS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THE DEPUTIES TO THE CONGRESS WILL SELECT THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE AND SO RIVAL FACTIONS WILL COMPETE TO ENSURE THAT THEIR SUPPORTERS ARE WELL REPRESENTED AMONGST THE DEPUTIES. EACH FACTION WILL TRY TO SECURE ITS ABILITY TO DO THIS IN THE RUN-UP TO
THE JUNE MEETINGS.
7. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF CANDIDATES TO TAKE OVER THE PREMIERSHIP
FROM LI PENG IF DENG SUCCEEDS IN OUSTING HIM. ZHU RONGJI IS THE MOST PROMINENT BUT HE IS LIKELY TO PROVOKE CONSIDERABLE RESISTANCE FROM CONSERVATIVES, WHO WOULD VIEW HIM AS TOO RADICAL. AS MERELY AN ALTERNATE MEMBER OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE, HIS PARTY STANDING IS ALSO WEAK. IF CONSERVATIVE INFLUENCE REMAINS STRONG, COMPROMISE CANDIDATES COULD BE FOUND IN VICE-PREMIERS TIAN JIYUN AND ZOU JIAHUA. TIAN, AN ASSOCIATE OF ZHAO ZIYANG, HAS CLEAR REFORMIST CREDENTIALS, BUT WAS POLITICALLY LIGHT-WEIGHT AND WIDELY-ACCEPTABLE ENOUGH TO HAVE RETAINED HIS POSITIONS AFTER TIANANMEN. ZOU IS NOT SO OBVIOUSLY A REFORMIST BUT IS A CAPABLE ADMINISTRATOR. A CANDIDATE MAY BE SOUGHT AMONGST PROVINCIAL LEADERS. NOW THAT THE GUANGDONG EXPERIENCE IS TO BE EMULATED, FORMER GOVERNOR YE XUANPING IS À POSSIBILITY. YE, THROUGH HIS FATHER MARSHAL YE JIANYING, PROBABLY ENJOYS CRUCIAL PERSONAL SUPPORT IN PARTY AND MILITARY
CIRCLES.
8.
IN ADDITION TO THESE POLITICAL ASPECTS, THE NPC WILL ALSO HAVE BOOSTED ECONOMIC REFORM. ATTACKS ON FORMALISM AND BUREACRATISM MAY HELP TO WEAKEN OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTING REFORMS ALREADY ON THE STATUTE BOOK. AN IMPORTANT THRUST OF POLICY WILL BE TO TRY TO REMOVE ADMINISTRATIVE INTERFERENCE IN THE RUNNING OF ENTERPRISES, WHILE ENCOURAGING THEM TO RATIONALISE MANAGEMENT METHODS AND BECOME MORE MARKET-ORIENTATED. STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISE WILL BE ENCOURAGED TO OPERATE MORE LIKE THOSE IN THE COLLECTIVE SECTOR. THE SCOPE OF STATE PLANNING IS LIKELY TO BE FURTHER REDUCED AND MORE PRICES
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