TNAG-2493-FCO40-3625-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-Chinese-reac-1992 — Page 25

UNCLASSIFIED

061346

MDLIAN 6034

UNCLASSIFIED

FM HONG KONG

TO PRIORITY FCO

TELNO 2724

OF 172311Z NOVEMBER 92

HKC 012/4

INFO PRIORITY PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG

ла Chungle.

reacties

CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT: CHINESE TACTICS PRESS REPORTS

1. QUOTING CHINESE SOURCES BOTH MING PAO AND HK ECONOMIC TIMES TODAY (18 NOVEMBER) CARRIED REPORTS ON CHINESE TACTICS IN THE CURRENT SINO-BRITISH ROW, INCLUDING NOTABLY THE EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SAR PREPARATORY COMMITTEE.

MING PAO

2. ACCORDING TO THE MING PAO REPORT, CHINA'S BASIC TACTIC NOW WAS TO MAKE ABSOLUTELY NO CONCESSION AND ATTEMPT TO 'GAIN THE UPPERHAND WITH REACTIVE MEASURES'. THEY WERE WAITING TO SEE WHAT THE GOVERNOR WOULD DO AFTER HIS LONDON VISIT. BUT THEY WOULD

NEITHER DISCUSS CURRENT PROPOSALS WITH THE BRITISH SIDE NOR PUT FORWARD COUNTER-PROPOSALS.

3. SOURCES SAID IF THE DEADLOCK CONTINUED AND DEVELOPMENTS WERE BECOMING EVEN MORE UNFAVOURABLE TO THE CHINESE, AN 'EARLY TAKEOVER WOULD BE AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY. IN SUCH A SCENARIO, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SENDING PLA TROOPS WOULD NOT/NOT BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH THE PRINCIPLED POSITION OF 'SENIOR LEVELS OF THE CHINESE SIDE WAS TO IMPLEMENT THE BASIC LAW IN HONG KONG NO

MATTER WHAT HAPPENED. SO FAR THE CHINESE SIDE HAD NO INTENTION OF 'MOBILISE THE PUBLIC' AGAINST THE GOVERNOR. IF THEY DID, IT WOULD BE THE PRELUDE TO AN 'EARLY TAKEOVER'.

1

4. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE GOVERNOR PRESSED AHEAD WITH HIS REFORMS BUT THE SITUATION HAD NOT DETERIORATED TO THE EXTENT CALLING FOR AN EARLY TAKEOVER, THE CHINESE RESPONSE WOULD BE TO STICK TO 'NON-CONVERGENCE' I.E. TO TAKE CORRESPONDING ACTION

AGAINST WHAT THE BRITISH HAD DONE. ONE EXAMPLE WOULD BE TO SET UP THE SAR PREPARATORY COMMITTEE IN AS EARLY AT 1995 TO SHOW THAT

THE POLITICAL FRAMEWORK ESTABLISHED BY HKG WOULD NOT BE ACCEPTED. ON THE ECONOMY, THE CHINESE WOULD RESORT TO 'NON-CO-OPERATION' IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS AND WOULD NOT TAKE STANCE ON AGREEMENTS STRADDLING 1997 CONCLUDED BY HKG, INCLUDING LAND LEASES AND OTHER FRANCHISES. THE CHINESE WOULD NEITHER RECOGNISE NOR HONOUR THE

PAGE

UNCLASSIFIED