27
contributory factor in shaping the results. Were the elections
to result in a complete victory for the United Democrats,
of whom are regarded as subversives by Beijing and therefore
unacceptable as legislators come July 1st 1997, the consequences
could be destabilising for the territory. As the Tiananmen events
showed, Deng Xiaoping will pay any
pay any cost if the survival of
Communist rule is deemed to be at stake, and the Chinese
authorities have already made it clear that they will not allow
Hong Kong to become a base for what they regard as subversion.
If, on the other hand, some form of elections could be found that
gave the candidates favoured by Beijing a good chance of being
elected, it may not enjoy much credibility amongst the people of
Hong Kong and it would probably still prove very difficult for
Communist nominees to win seats in freely and openly conducted
elections of any kind. Nevertheless, it can be seen that the
latter option might prove attractive. But if there were an issue
on which a smooth transition on which the hoped for "through
train" from British to Chinese sovereignty could finally founder
it is this.
An increasingly nervous Hong Kong in which Britain perforce
would have declining authority needs to address this problem.
Even though the negotiations are so structured as to make this
a Sino-British problem, in fact it is a Sino-Hong Kong problem
as they will have to live with the consequences and to find a way
to make them work. The British side can be expected to do its
best to work for the smooth transition, but the question it may
have to consider is whether there are circumstances in which in
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.