TNAG-2487-FCO40-3618-Future-relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1992 — Page 232

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LOUIS CHA ON THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG

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1. I attended a seminar at Oxford University given by Louis Cha of the University of Hong Kong on Hong Kong and China after 1997. He gave a generally upbeat assessment based on the premise that a prosperous Hong Kong was in China's political and economic interest. He was however very critical of the recent Court of Final Appeal agreement allowing for only judge from another jurisdiction, believing it to be in contravention of the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law. He did not have much respect for the new advisers chosen by China, whom he described as more pro-Peking than the Basic Law Drafting Committee. Although they might offer some constructive opinions, on major issues they would be in agreement with Peking. He believed that Britain was serving its own interests first and foremost in all its dealings with Hong Kong and China, but could still do some good things for Hong Kong when its interests and those of Hong Kong coincided. Nonetheless its motives were always suspect.

2.

Professor Cha opened with a description of the background to China's attitude towards Hong Kong. The question had arisen in the 1970s when Portugal, at the prompting he suggested of the Soviet Union, had offered to hand back Macao. This had put the Chinese leadership on a difficult spot and they had eventually decided a long term strategy for Macao (also for Hong Kong) which was that they should maintain the status quo and exploit it for China's interests. This has remained a constant in Chinese policy. The Joint Declaration negotiations were initiated by the British. They too did not wish to see any change in Hong Kong's position but they wanted it to be formalised in a new legal arrangement. This was something the Chinese could not accept. Deng solved the problem with his idea one country two systems. Peking's undertakings were designed not just to please the people of Hong Kong, and to win the good will of the United States and Japan, but also to serve Peking's interests. There was a British contribution. Mrs Thatcher had spoken of the irrevocable moral responsibility Britain had for the people of Hong Kong, and China needed to give clear and definite human rights to Hong Kong. These aspirations had all been realised. The Joint Declaration could "almost not be better".

3.

There were

However there were also problems on the horizon. unresolved contradictions between China's economic and its political development. China would probably continue to develop rapidly, and Hong Kong was closely involved in this development especially in the Guangdong region. But although China still wanted both stability and prosperity, for China stability was paramount. In Hong Kong the political mentality was very hostile

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