TNAG-2472-FCO40-3599-Confidential-talks-between-the-UK-and-China-regarding-financ-1992 — Page 24

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P.32

(a) the assumed trend growth rate in the

economy;

Paper 5 (P. 3076)

(b)

the trend inflation rate;

(c) committed

recurrent

and

capital

expenditure

in various programme

areas;

(d)

"

the overall permitted growth rates of recurrent and capital expenditure;

(e)

the

level and

timing

investments to be a made-

Capital Investment Fund;

of

equity

from

the

(£) the medium term forecast of earnings

on reserve balances; and

9.

(g)

the trend revenue

Kelds.

The forecast allows us to assess the impact of our spending plans against our budgetary guidelines and to consider the extent of any revenue-raising measures which may be required or concessions which can be afforded.

10.

In addition, it allows us to test the sensitivity of our projections to changes in the forecasts/assumptions about such factors as GDP growth and

inflation.