CONFIDENTIAL
127775
MDLIAN 471
HONG KONG, THOUGHT LEE, COULD WELL BE THE TOUCHSTONE FOR CHINESE POLICY AS FAR AS THE AMERICANS WERE CONCERNED. IF PEKING COMPROMISED WITH PATTEN AND ACCEPTED MORE DEMOCRACY IN THE COLONY, THE AMERICANS WOULD ALLOW FREER TRADE WITH THE US. IF THE CHINESE PERSISTED IN BEING TOUGH, THE AMERICANS COULD TIGHTEN THE REIN. THUS PATTEN HAD NOTHING TO LOSE. BUT IF THINGS WENT WRONG, AND THE CHINESE WERE STUBBORN, THE PEOPLE OF HONG KONG WOULD SUFFER BADLY. FOR NOT ONLY WOULD THEY FEEL THE WEIGHT OF THE CHINESE YOKE, BUT THE MNF WOULD BE CANCELLED AND CHINA INCLUDING HONG KONG, SHENZHEN, ETC
5.
LEFT TO THEIR FATE.
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HONG KONG WAS MORE THAN A TOUCHSTONE, HOWEVER. IT WAS IMPORTANT TO THE AMERICANS BECAUSE AS A PART OF CHINA WITH A FAR MORE ADVANCED FORM OF DEMOCRACY, IT COULD BE THE BEACHHEAD VIA GUANGDONG FOR A MORE GENERAL LIBERALISATION, WHICH WOULD THUS MAKE CHINA A MORE ACCEPTABLE AND LESS DANGEROUS SUPERPOWER IN THE REGION. THIS WAS THE DANGER THAT THE CHINESE THEMSELVES WOULD RESIST AS FAR AS THEY POSSIBLY COULD, BUT GIVEN THEIR ECONOMIC NEED FOR A FRIENDLY US, THEY MIGHT COMPROMISE ONCE WASHINGTON STARTED TURNING THE SCREW. AND THE ADVANTAGES TO JAPAN AND OTHER STATES IN THE REGION WERE OBVIOUS. LEE FEARED THAT AS LONG AS DENG WAS ALIVE, CHINA WOULD NOT BUDGE. BUT IF HE LIVED THREE YEARS, AND ZHU RONGJI CAME TO THE TOP AT THE HEAD OF THE PRAGMATISTS, THINGS COULD WORK OUT
WELL.
6.
ON THE IMMEDIATE STATE OF THE GAME, LEE POINTED OUT THAT MR PATTEN AND PEKING WERE PLAYING BY TWO DIFFERENT SETS OF RULES, THE CHINESE BY THEIR UNILATERAL BASIC LAW OF 1990, AND PATTEN BY THE JOINT DECLARATION WHICH GAVE HIM MORE LEEWAY. PEKING COULD ATTACK MR PATTEN IMMEDIATELY ON ONE SCORE HE WAS PROPOSING TO INTRODUCE A SYSTEM WHEREBY THE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE 'FUNCTIONS' (PROFESSIONS, ETC) WOULD BE ELECTED BY POPULAR VOTE, WHEREAS IT HAD BEEN AGREED THAT THEY SHOULD BE SELECTED FROM AMONG LEADERS IN
THEIR RESPECTIVE FIELDS.
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LEE SAID HE DID NOT THINK FOR A MOMENT THAT CHINA WOULD CONSIDER THE OPTION OF STRONG-ARM ACTION, BUT WOULD PUT PRESSURE ON HONG KONG BUSINESS CIRCLES AND ON THE POPULATION GENERALLY TO WITHHOLD SUPPORT FROM MR PATTEN. PEKING MIGHT ALSO FLOOD THE COLONY WITH REFUGEES, INCLUDING CRIMINAL ELEMENTS FROM SOUTH CHINA.
COMMENT
LEE'S THINKING SEEMS TO PROCEED FROM THE BASIS THAT THERE HAS TO BE A REASON, WHICH IS NOT YET CLEAR, WHY THE GOVERNOR IS, IN
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