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127725 MDHIAN 2985
THE IMMEDIATE REACTION POLLS SHOW HIM GAINING SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER THE DEBATE. THE REPUBLICANS HOPE THAT IF PEROT BECOMES A CONVINCING CANDIDATE HE WILL SPLIT THE ANTI-BUSH VOTE WITH CLINTON, ALLOWING THE PRESIDENT TO WIN WITH A PLURALITY OF 40 PER CENT OR
BUT IT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN THAT PEROT CAN SUSTAIN THE GAINS.
AS LONG AS HE IS THE THIRD CANDIDATE HIS VOTE IS LIKELY TO BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TWO SERIOUS CONTENDERS IN THE FINAL DAYS OF THE CAMPAIGN. AND NOT ALL OF HIS GAINS LAST NIGHT WILL HAVE BEEN AT THE EXPENSE OF CLINTON.
5.
AS THE LEADER IN THE POLLS CLINTON SIMPLY HAD TO AVOID ANY SERIOUS GAFFES, AND HE DID SO. HE USED THE OCCASION TO STRESS HIS THEME OF CHANGE, TO ATTACK BUSH AND TO OUTLINE HIS POLICIES. PEROT'S ATTACKS ON THE PRESIDENT'S RECORD SHOULD HAVE HELPED HIM. IF HE HAD BEEN ON THE STAGE ALONE WITH THE PRESIDENT HE WOULD HAVE BEEN THE UNDISPUTED WINNER. BUT IN CONTRAST WITH PEROT HE APPEARED ROBOTIC AND FAILED TO INSPIRE. WHILE STILL LEADING IN THE POLLS, CLINTON PROBABLY FAILED TO WIN OVER UNDECIDED VOTERS OR FIRM UP HIS SOFT BASE OF SUPPORT.
6.
THE DEBATE PRODUCED LITTLE NEW ON SUBSTANCE. BUT CLINTON USED THE OCCASION TO SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT'S EFFORTS TO SECURE A UN RESOLUTION ENFORCING THE NO FLY ZONE IN BOSNIA. HE ALSO ADVOCATED STIFFENING THE EMBARGO ON SERBIA AND SUGGESTED LIFTING THE ARMS EMBARGO ON BOSNIA. ON CHINA, CLINTON SAID THAT IF MFN WAS TO BE CONTINUED FOR STATE OWNED AS WELL AS PRIVATE ENTERPRISES CHINA WOULD HAVE TO OBSERVE HUMAN RIGHTS. BUSH ARGUED THAT THIS WOULD ISOLATE AND RUIN HONG KONG.
7.
BUSH AND CLINTON WILL STRIVE FOR BETTER PERFORMANCES IN THE REMAINING TWO DEBATES. BUT FEWER PEOPLE WILL BE WATCHING. WITH ONLY THREE WEEKS TO GO CLINTON IS NOW ONLY LIKELY TO BE STOPPED BY A MAJOR SURPRISE, OR BY A SURGE OF SUPPORT FOR PEROT.
MEYER
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