TNAG-2469-FCO40-3593-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-Hong-Kong-interests-1992 — Page 132

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5. FINALLY, IT IS, AS YOUR TELEGRAM IMPLIES, POSSIBLE FOR THE CONGRESS TO PASS LEGISLATION WHICH DOES NOT NECESSARILY HAVE THE BACKING OF THE ADMINISTRATION, WHICH SETS CONDITIONS FOR RENEWING MFN.

THIS, OF COURSE, HAS BEEN THE PATTERN IN RECENT YEARS. BUT OF ALL THE ABOVE SCENARIOS I WOULD THINK THIS THE LEAST LIKELY THIS YEAR. THE CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS ARE LIKELY TO ALLOW CLINTON TIME TO WORK OUT HOW HE WANTS TO HANDLE MFN.

6.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT, WHATEVER CLINTON DOES, SOME REPUBLICANS (PARTICULARLY JESSIE HELMS), WILL NOT THINK IT SUFFICIENT, AND MAY CHOOSE TO PUT FORWARD TOUGHER LEGISLATION OF THEIR OWN. GIVEN THE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY IN BOTH HOUSES, SUCH LEGISLATION IS UNLIKELY TO GET VERY FAR.

SIGNED S D PATTISON

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