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NAFT calla
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coples to ple
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FM WASHINGTON
TO TELELETTER FCO
TELELETTER NFR
OF 21230OZ SEPTEMBER 92
AND TO TELELETTER HONG KONG, PEKING
FROM: S D PATTISON, WASHINGTON
TO:
CC:
T FURNESS ESQ, HONG KONG DEPARTMENT, FCO
A SEATON ESQ, FED, FCO
S BRADLEY ESQ, HONG KONG CHANCERY PEKING
US/CHINA
MFN
J
TE File
MC CANTE ERO
M 23/7
1.
OUR CONTACTS HERE CONTINUE TO BE OPTIMISTIC THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN HIS VETO OF THE MFN CONDITIONALITY BILL. CURRENT PLANS ARE FOR THE HOUSE TO VOTE ON THE TEXT ALREADY ADOPTED BY THE SENATE SOME TIME THIS WEEK. THE LEGISLATION WILL THEN GO TO THE WHITE HOUSE. OUR CONTACTS BELIEVE THAT, IN AN ELECTION YEAR, THE PRESIDENT OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO MUSTER SUFFICIENT REPUBLICAN SUPPORT EVEN IF NOT ALL REPUBLICAN SENATORS AGREE WITH HIS CHINA POLICY.
2.
OF COURSE, IF THE CHINESE DO SOMETHING SILLY, ALL BETS ARE OFF. THE ADMINISTRATION HAD A SCARE OVER THE WEEKEND, WHEN THERE WERE REPORTS THAT THE CHINESE MIGHT RETALIATE FOR THE TAIWAN F16 DEAL BY HALTING PURCHASES OF US GRAIN. THEY APPEARED NOT TO HAVE KNOWN THAT A NUMBER OF KEY SENATORS WHO SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT ON MFN REPRESENT GRAIN STATES. IN THE END, HOWEVER, THE CHINESE RECANTED: STATE TOLD ME ON 21 SEPTEMBER THAT THE CHINESE HAD NOW SPOKEN PUBLICLY OF THE IMPORTANCE OF NOT LETTING THE F16 ROW DISRUPT COMMERCIAL RELATIONS.
3.
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DESPITE THE OPTIMISTIC MFN FORECAST I HAVE TOLD BOTH STATE AND NSC THAT, AS BEFORE, WE WOULD BE WILLING TO CONSIDER HIGH-LEVEL LOBBYING OF KEY SENATORS IF THE ADMINISTRATION THOUGHT THIS NECESSARY. THEY HAVE WELCOMED OUR OFFER, BUT NOT, SO FAR, TAKEN US UP ON IT. I HAVE ALSO DISCUSSED WITH THE HONG KONG ECONOMIC AND
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