TNAG-2468-FCO40-3592-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-Hong-Kong-interests-1992 — Page 199

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HONG KONG WOULD REMAIN AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE ADMINISTRATION'S DELIBERATIONS WAS REASSURING. NEVERTHELESS, THE UNANIMOUS VIEW OF THESE OFFICIALS WAS THAT CHINA'S MEN STATUS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE SUBJECT OF HEATED DEBATE IN CONGRESS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. IN ADDITION TO U.S. CONCERNS OVER CHINA'S TRADE PRACTICES, ARMS SALES AND HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION, ELECTION YEAR POLITICS COULD BE A FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SHAPE AND TIMING OF THESE DEBATES.

5. BOTH DOLE (SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADER) AND SIMPSON (SENATE REPUBLICAN WHIP) THOUGHT THAT THERE OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT VOTES IN THE SENATE TO SUSTAIN A PRESIDENTIAL VETO, BUT THE NUMBER OF SUPPORTING VOTES WOULD BE TIGHT. DOLE SAID THAT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR SUPPORTERS OF MFN RENEWAL TO STEP UP EFFORTS IN THE COMING MONTHS TO ENSURE THAT THE PRESIDENT'S VETO OF ANY LEGISLATION TO REVOKE MFN, OR ATTACH CONDITIONS FOR RENEWAL, WOULD BE SUSTAINED. SIMPSON THOUGH THAT WHILE MITCHELL (SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADER) MIGHT INTRODUCE A BILL WITH A SINGLE CONDITION LIMITED TO THE SALE OF ARMS, CONGRESSWOMAN PELOSI WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY WANT TO IMPOSE CONDITIONS RELATING TO HUMAN RIGHTS. ON TIMING, SIMPSON FELT THAT A STRONG POSSIBILITY EXISTED FOR THE CRITICAL MFN BATTLE TO BE FOUGHT BEFORE, RATHER THAN AFTER, THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION IN JULY. PACKWOOD (RANKING REPUBLICAN, SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE) WAS CONCERNED THAN AN MFN BILL SETTING OUT ONLY ONE OR TWO CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DEFEAT. MOREOVER, ANY NEW REPORTS ON ARMS SALES OR HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS BY CHINA COULD TIP THE BALANCE AGAINST UNCONDITIONAL RENEWAL.

6 =

BOTH GINGRICH CHOUSE REPUBLICAN WHIP) AND ROSTENKOWSKI <CHAIRMAN, HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE) INDICATED THAT THEY UNDERSTOOD HONG KONG'S CONCERNS. HOWEVER, PELOSI SEEMED DETERMINED TO KEEP THE MFN ISSUE ALIVE. POINTING TO THE GROWING NUMBER OF HOUSE MEMBERS NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION, GINGRICH

SUGGESTED THAT EFFORTS AIMED AT EDUCATING NEW MEMBERS OF THE 1993 CONGRESS ON THE MFN ISSUE SHOULD BE LOOKED INTO AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.

COMMENT

7.

SIMPSON'S VIEW THAT THE MFN BATTLE IN CONGRESS MIGHT TAKE

PLACE IN JUNE AND JULY RATHER THAN LATER IN THE YEAR IS SIGNIFICANT. IN THIS CONNECTION, WE AGREE WITH WASHINGTON TELNO 1221, THAT IT WOULD BE BETTER TO TAKE A VIEW ON THE TIMING OF A

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