TNAG-2468-FCO40-3592-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-Hong-Kong-interests-1992 — Page 168

re-exports.

CONFIDENTIAL

Non-renewal of MFN could result in:-

i) a loss of 44,000 60,000 Hong Kong jobs

ii) GDP growth rate cut by one third to a half

iii) a loss of income by Hong Kong of HK$12-16 billion

iv) a loss of HK$91 123 billion in overall trade

5. Although it is almost certain that President Bush will

renew MFN this year it is less certain how his decision

(which will probably be announced before the end of this month) will fare on Capitol Hill. Our Washington Embassy believe Congress will challenge it by introducing a

joint resolution of disapproval. This has to be voted on

before 31 August, and the Veto debate is likely to take

place in early September. It is also likely that Congress will introduce a bill setting conditions for MFN.

NESADH/3

CONFIDENTIAL