TNAG-2466-FCO40-3590-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1992 — Page 40

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

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6

rate onto the banking system. In the event of a shift

out of Hong Kong dollar into foreign currencies by bank

customers with Hong Kong dollar balances, there would

be a reduction in the net foreign currency position for

the banking system as a whole. If it is reluctant to

accept such a reduction then there would be pressure

for interest rates to rise to the point where the continuing

outflow into foreign currencies is matched by an offsetting

inflow attracted by an interest rate differential which

favoured the Hong Kong dollar.

10.

The rise in interest rates would at the same

time discourage Hong Kong dollar borrowing and lead to

a contraction in the Hong Kong dollar money supply.

This would in turn reduce domestic demand, restrain imports

The combined

and, through a downward adjustment in the cost/price

structure, enhance export competitiveness.

effects of these changes would contribute to restoring

external balance.

Practice

11.

Since the establishment of the link, the Hong

Kong dollar's exchange rate against the US dollar has

been remarkably stable, fluctuating for most of the time

within 4% on either side of 7.80. There has, however,

been spasmodic, substantial pressure on both sides of

/ the linked

G.F. 316

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