TNAG-2457-FCO40-3578-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-presentation-1992 — Page 39

CONFIDENTIAL

MWA C7/7. Presentaron

85

THE GOVERNORS PROPOSALS : HONG KONG OPINION

The past

1. The traditional response in Hong Kong to a dispute with China is

first to want the British Government to stand up to Peking and then, as the row escalates, to start calling for cooperation and complaining that the quarrel between Britain and China is damaging Hong Kong's

interests. (They tend conveniently to forget that seeking the best

interests of Hong Kong is usually the cause of the quarrel.)

Public opinion

2.

Hong Kong's reaction to the present dispute over the Governor's constitutional proposals displays similar ingredients, but there are some important differences too. Initial reactions to the Governor's

LegCo address were remarkably favourable, with approval ratings of

75-80%. Responses to the constitutional package were more

uncertain through worries about China's expected disapproval; but even

so 50-60% were positive, and wanted the Governor to go ahead regardless of Chinese opposition. So far public opinion has held up well, despite a sustained, hostile campaign in the pro-China press and crude threats from Chinese leaders. Again so far, economic confidence

remains high and the Hang Seng index has proved steady.

Business reaction

3. The longer term reaction of businessmen, big and small, will be

crucial. Economic prosperity has always been the bedrock of confidence in Hong Kong, and most businessmen have regarded a good understanding with Peking of greater importance than the development of democracy in Hong Kong. The silent majority has gone along with this view. After an initial silence, and now that the Chinese have revealed the full extent of their hostility, sceptical voices are beginning to be raised in business circles, eg Sir Gordon McWhinnie, Chairman of the Jockey Club, quoted recently as saying that business is more important than democracy. The Chinese are already working hard to draw off support from this important constituency, particularly those with substantial economic interests in China.