TNAG-2454-FCO40-3572-Hong-Kong-opinion-polls-1992 — Page 27

RESTRICTED

this cals

4

077637

MDHIAN 9087

RESTRICTED

FM HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 2754

OF 241042Z NOVEMBER 92

TOP COPY Q DIST?

INFO PRIORITY PEKING, WASHINGTON, OTTAWA, CANBERRA, TOKYO

FROM INFORMATION CO-ORDINATOR

CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT: SUNDAY MORNING POST OPINION POLL

1.

MUCH HAS BEEN MADE OF THE RESULTS OF AN OPINION POLL

PUBLISHED IN THE SUNDAY MORNING POST HERE ON 22 NOVEMBER. THE PAPER CHOSE TO EMPHASISE ONE OF THE RESULTS, WHICH INDICATED THAT FEWER PEOPLE SUPPORTED THE PROPOSITION THAT OUR PROPOSALS FOR THE 1995 ELECTIONS SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED EVEN IF THIS WERE TO MAKE A

LEGCO THROUGH TRAIN IMPOSSIBLE. THE RESULT ON THIS SPECIFIC POINT WAS THAT 34 PERCENT FAVOURED PRESSING AHEAD IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES AND 48 PERCENT WERE OPPOSED. THIS COMPARES WITH 56 PERCENT AND 19 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY IN A POLL CONDUCTED ON 8 OCTOBER.

2. THE SUNDAY MORNING POST, UNHELPFULLY, CHOSE TO INTERPRET THIS RESULT AS A GENERAL LOSS OF SUPPORT FOR OUR PROPOSALS. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RESULTS REVEALS A VERY DIFFERENT PICTURE. FOR EXAMPLE, IN RESPONSE TO THE QUESTION QUOTE DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS ON THE FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCIES UNQUOTE, THE RESULT WAS 57.5 PERCENT IN SUPPORT AND ONLY 14.7 PERCENT AGAINST. SIMILARLY, IN RESPONSE TO THE QUESTION QUOTE DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS ON THE ELECTION COMMITTEE UNQUOTE, THE RESULT WAS 57 PERCENT IN SUPPORT AND ONLY 17.2 PERCENT AGAINST.

3.

IN ANSWER TO ANOTHER QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER RESPONDENTS HAD CHANGED THEIR OPINION OF MR PATTEN SINCE 7 OCTOBER, 40 PERCENT REPORTED NO CHANGE, 27 PERCENT SAID THAT THEY NOW HAD A HIGHER OPINION OF MR PATTEN AND 28 PERCENT A LOWER OPINION. THE ONLY CONCLUSION ONE CAN DRAW FROM THIS RESULT IS THAT SUPPORT FOR MR PATTEN PERSONALLY REMAINS HIGH AT WELL OVER 60 PERCENT.

4.

WE ARE SENDING THE FULL RESULTS OF THE SURVEY BY FAX. YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE RESULTS ARE BASED ON A SAMPLE OF ONLY 402. WE WOULD BE GRATEFUL IF YOU AND OTHER RECIPIENTS WOULD DRAW ON

1

PAGE RESTRICTED