TNAG-2454-FCO40-3572-Hong-Kong-opinion-polls-1992 — Page 11

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WAAB 92/5

p.a. Opinion Polk

1517253

MDHIAN 1744

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FM HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 2874

OF 100815Z DECEMBER 92

TOP COPY DIST?

INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, WASHINGTON, OTTAWA, CANBERRA

INFO IMMEDIATE UKREP JLG HONG KONG

FROM: INFORMATION CO-ORDINATOR

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM: OPINION POLL RESULTS

1. ON 9 DECEMBER THE PEKING CONTROLLED CHINA NEWS SERVICE PUBLISHED THE RESULTS OF A POLL CONDUCTED IN THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AMONGST THE MANAGERS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED BUSINESSES. THE REPORT GAVE NO DETAILS OF THE SAMPLE SIZE OR POLLING METHODOLOGY. THE MAIN RESULTS WERE:

(I) 78 PERCENT DEMANDED THAT THERE BE NO CHANGE TO THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM AND EXECUTIVE-LED GOVERNMENT:

(II) 67 PERCENT TOOK A POSITIVE ATTITUDE TOWARDS CHINA'S INFLUENCE ON HONG KONG AFFAIRS:

(III) 46 PERCENT DISAGREED WITH THE GOVERNOR'S POLITICAL PROPOSAL, 33 PERCENT AGREED WITH THEM AND 21 PERCENT GAVE NO ANSWER: AND

(IV) 53 PERCENT DISAPPROVED OF THE QUOTE ACTIONS OF THE DEMOCRATS UNQUOTE, 11 PERCENT APPROVED AND 36 PERCENT GAVE NO REPLY.

2. GIVEN THE PROVENANCE OF THIS POLL AND THE SUSPICIOUS LACK OF INFORMATION ON SAMPLE SIZE AND METHODOLOGY, THE MOST SURPRISING ASPECT OF THE RESULTS IS THE 46 PERCENT, 33 PERCENT, 21 PERCENT SPLIT ON QUESTION (III). IT SEEMS THAT EVEN WITH A RIGGED SURVEY FOCUSING ON A CAREFULLY SELECTED SECTION OF THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, THE COMMUNIST CONTROLLED PRESS CANNOT REDUCE SUPPORT FOR OUR PROPOSALS BELOW A THIRD OF RESPONDENTS.

PATTEN

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