TNAG-2453-FCO40-3571-Seminar-regarding-Hong-Kong-matters-hosted-by-Douglas-Hurd---1992 — Page 68

CONFIDENTIAL

9. Issues for discussion: the prospects for putting some liberal LegCo members onto EXCO (perhaps with the arrival of

the new Governor); the likely price (a more determinant Hong

Kong voice on relations with China, Chinese suspicion,

splits within EXCO and the possibility of losing existing

EXCO members such as Baroness Dunn); lesser steps such as

systematic contacts between leaders of the LegCo parties and

the Governor (and Ministers).

(ii) The 1995 LegCo Elections

10.

These will be one of the crucial way points to 1997.

The best outcome in terms of stability would be the

"through-train", with the 1995 LegCo crossing 1997 intact

and surviving until 1999. There are three main obstacles:

The

pressure for more directly elected seats than the 20 stipulated in the Basic Law (BL). There is a range of

opinion on the liberal side from those who call for

universal suffrage immediately to those who would settle

for an increase to 30 seats in 1995. Ministers are

committed to raising the question of a faster pase of democratisation with the Chinese when the time is right.

The Chinese have made clear that there is no question of

increasing the number laid down in the BL. The choice is

therefore between the "through-train" and more democracy.

As usual, it is hard to gauge Hong Kong opinion. liberals were elected last September on a platform including more democracy, but the question was not posed

in terms of whether people preferred more democracy to continuity in 1997. This is an issue which excites the

Western-educated liberal elite. But many other people in Hong Kong would not rate democracy above continuity: for example a recent poll in the Chinese language press put more democracy at the bottom of a list of primary tasks

for the new Governor. The Governor believes that this

poll is a good representation of the views of the public

as a whole.

FIZABP/3

CONFIDENTIAL