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THE RT. HON. LORD FANSHAWE of RichmoND K.C.M.G.
HOUSE OF LORDS,
Mr. Rickets, HICH
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25th November 1992 Spenal Ach,
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I felt that I would write to you to express my concern about your policy in Hong Kong. Whilst I am not fully up-to-date with latest events in the Colony, I listened with admiration to the skilful way in which you set out and defended your policy to Tory peers last week.
However,
I also realise that if you had not taken the measures to increase democracy you would have faced strong criticism from Martin Lee and others in Hong Kong and trouble here at Westminster and with the U.K. Fress. in my view the Peking Chinese will not accept your plan as has become apparent from their recent statements. They will try undermining you in Hong Kong and will confront you making life difficult over the next five years. You might indeed face serious internal security problems which from my past experience can flare up very quickly in the overcrowded and volatile population of the Colony. In the process all this might fatally undermine confidence in Hong Kong. At the end of the day what is the point ?
In 1997 the Chinese could and probably will reverse everything you have put in place overnight.
The one hope now is for a change for the better in the regime in Peking. This is just possible following the dramatic changes in economic development throughout China over the past two or three years. You hinted at the meeting here that if public opinion regarding your plans on Hong Kong changed as a result of Peking's pressure, you might reconsider your proposals. I fear that this might cause a major loss of face for you and the Government and might indeed be the worst of all worlds.
Now I accept that perhaps I am failing to understand the current pressures, but I believe that realism should make us accept that in no way is Peking going to support a democratic system in Hong Kong which will undermine its political regime in China.
I have avoided making any public comment because as former Minister responsible for Hong Kong from 1970 to 1974 who also negotiated the exchange of Ambassadors in Peking, I do not wish in any way to make your task more difficult. Although my remarks would be of no interest here in London, I fear that they might receive some publicity in Hong Kong. For similar reasons I did not comment at the meeting with you here last week. I may, however, be trapped by a reporter from Hong Kong as events develop.
As an old friend of yours who greatly welcomed your appointment and admiring your determination and courage, I felt that you should be aware of my views.
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H.E. Christopher Patten Governor of Hong Kong
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