TNAG-2452-FCO40-3569-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 179

IN THE FALLOUT.

SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS IN OTHER WESTERN NTRIES IS, AS YOU SAY, NOT AN EASY CARD TO PLAY IN A WAY WHICH WILL BE EFFECTIVE. IT CONJURES UP THE 'INTERNATIONALISATION WHICH THE CHINESE COMPLAINED ABOUT SO LOUDLY AFTER TIANANMEN. DEPLOYING IT IS MORE LIKELY TO MAKE THE CHINESE DIG IN THAN TO BE MORE FLEXIBLE. THEY KNOW VERY WELL THAT ALTHOUGH SOME WESTERN COUNTRIES MAY BE PREPARED TO SPEAK UP ON BEHALF OF THEIR OWN INTERESTS IN HONG KONG, AND EVEN TO ARGUE IN FAVOUR OF INCREASING DEMOCRACY IN THE, TERRITORY, NONE OF THEM WILL BE WILLING TO DO/DO ANYTHING VERY MUCH ABOUT IT.

12.

ONE POSSIBILITY WHICH MAY JUST BE WORTH CONSIDERING, IF ONLY AS A MEANS OF BRINGING THE CHINESE TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE IS TO UP THE ANTE. WE COULD SAY THAT SINCE THE CHINESE ARE THREATENING TO PULL THE HOUSE DOWN OVER WHAT ARE VERY MODEST PROPOSALS TO EXTEND DEMOCRACY, WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER WHAT WE WOULD ALWAYS HAVE PREFERRED TO DO, IE TO INCREASE THE NUMBER OF DIRECTLY ELECTED SEATS IN 1995. THAT MIGHT HOWEVER SERVE ONLY TO INFLAME FURTHER AN ALREADY INFLAMED SITUATION.

13. AN INVITATION TO LI PENG TO VISIT LONDON WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY BE WELL RECEIVED, IF IT WAS MADE CLEAR THAT A MAJOR PURPOSE WOULD BE TO DISCUSS, AND HOPEFULLY RESOLVE, THE CURRENT DIFFERENCES OVER HONG KONG, BUT UNLESS VERY CAREFULLY HANDLED IT WOULD LOOK LIKE GOING OVER THE GOVERNOR'S HEAD, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT THE CHINESE WANT TO DO. IF BY A CONDITIONAL OFFER YOU MEAN THAT IT WOULD BE MADE CLEAR THAT LI WOULD BE INVITED PROVIDED THE CHINESE WERE PREPARED TO DROP THEIR OBJECTIONS TO THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS I DON'T THINK IT WOULD DO THE TRICK. A VISIT TO LONDON WOULD BE A FEATHER IN LI'S CAP BUT HE WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO PAY A PRICE OF THAT KIND.

MEETING BETWEEN THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND QIAN QICHEN

14. I DO NOT MYSELF THINK THAT THERE WOULD BE ANY POINT IN ASKING THE FOREIGN SECRETARY TO BRING FORWARD HIS MEETING WITH QIAN, OR INSERT AN ADDITIONAL ONE UNLESS EITHER:-

(A) THE CHINESE SOUGHT AN EARLY MEETING AND MADE IT CLEAR THEY HAD SOMETHING NEW TO SAY: OR

(B)

WE OURSELVES HAD A NEW MESSAGE WHICH COULD NOT EFFECTIVELY BE PUT ACROSS AT LOWER LEVEL.

MCLAREN

YYYY

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