CONFIDENTIAL
My
Not in favour of a referendum. Decisively divisive. position very hard if we lost or even if we won with a narrow majority on a low turnout. Allen Lee advocating a referendum because he knows there will not be one.
Way forward with China
The Chinese will not put forward alternative ideas.
They will continue blanket attacks on my constitutional proposals, make life as hard as possible on the airport, freeze JLG business.
They will scare Hong Kong as much as possible. could even hold military exercises in Guangdong.
They
But
Doubt if they will disrupt cross-border trade or supplies. They want to split Hong Kong people from me. they could withhold agreement on franchises and land sales, two areas where in practice we need Chinese agreement. This would have a serious economic impact.
We should continue to show ourselves willing to hold discussions not because there is much likelihood of
-
agreement, but to hold support in Hong Kong. (We could say that the Foreign Secretary would be happy to meet Qian before legislation is put to Legco).
Foreign support
Good Canadian and Australian support.
Want to visit US soon after inauguration if I can meet Grateful if PM could mention this to Clinton.
Clinton.
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CONFIDENTIAL
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