TNAG-2452-FCO40-3569-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 139

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for work to be done on cai: and had it in mind to put all three bills forward together. Consideration in LegCo might take about two months, ie until April.

6. The Secretary of State then raised the Chinese angle. He referred to the instruction from Deng and to the apparent Chinese wish to prevent the dispute spilling over into broader

relations with the UK.

7.

Sir R McLaren expected that the Chinese would intensify their campaign of intimidation in an effort to persuade as many of the political groups in Hong Kong as possible that

China could not be challenged and defeated on an issue of this

importance. If LegCo went ahead and adopted the Governor's

proposals in their present form he expected that the Chinese would formally declare that the proposals were contrary to the Basic Law. They would then step up the pressure further.

They would continue to try to distinguish between the Governor

(on whom attacks would be concentrated) and HMG. Pressure on Hong Kong could include an increase in illegal immigration,

and more aggressive patrolling on Hong Kong's sea borders.

But he was confident that the Chinese would not seek to apply

more extreme forms of pressure such as on food supplies.

8.

The Secretary of State asked about the impact of such a

campaign on LegCo members. Two possibilities were either that LegCo would be unwilling to pass the legislation, or that the

1995 elections would be aborted because candidates were

unwilling to stand in the absence of a through train.

9. The Governor said that the Hong Kong Government should

not seek to be more or less heroic than LegCo. He would rather be in the position of having tried to secure a modest increase in democracy in Hong Kong and failed (because LegCo

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CONFIDENTIAL