TNAG-2451-FCO40-3568-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 48

CONFIDENTIAL

A

B

و

himself will want to set cut his own thinking to the meeting.

The minute therefore concentrates on assessing likely Chinese

short-term tactics, and the longer term strategy they might

adopt if the Governor's proposals are passed by LegCo. It

identifies as the key short-term issue how opinion in Hong Kong,

and particularly in LegCo, will hold up under the Chinese

onslaught. And it considers the circumstances in which it might

be necessary, as part of sustaining support in Hong Kong, to

make the kind of minor changes to the Governor's proposals

identified at OPD (K) on 15 September (copy of minutes attached).·

We are likely to face several months during which the Chinese will be pulling out all the stops to intimidate members of

LegCo: the result could be very close (Hong Kong calculate that

they can count on firm support from about half of LegCo's

members). Ministers may therefore wish to consider with the

Governor what may be needed in order to shore up support.

5.

The Secretary of State will wish to see Sir Robin McLaren's

comments on the draft. His specific points have been accommodated. But his general points indicate that he would prefer the draft to lean more clearly in the direction of taking

further initiatives to bring the Chinese to the negotiating

table with the aim of exploring whether there was a basis for

agreement. I do not myself believe that there is much more we

can do in this direction. But if it became necessary for Hong

Kong reasons to change the Governor's proposals, we could use

that to give the Chinese a further opportunity to enter a real

discussion with us.

6. The draft minute also refers to a possible meeting between

the Secretary of State and the Chinese Foreign Minister, Qian. Qian himself raised this possibility when he saw the Governor in

Peking. The Secretary of State's next planned meeting with Qian

is in March 1993. There is a view in Hong Kong that the last-

chance for consultations with China over the electoral proposals-

CONFIDENTIAL