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AND THAT HE IS NOW PREPARED TO CONSIDER CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH IT WOULD BE EXPEDIENT TO MAKE CHANGES. I UNDERSTAND THAT THE SAME POINT EMERGED AT A MEETING OF THE GOVERNOR'S CHINA POLICY GROUP IN HONG KONG ON 6 NOVEMBER, AT WHICH OUR DRAFT MINUTE WAS DISCUSSED. BUT THE GOVERNOR REMAINS FIRM THAT ANY CHANGE WOULD HAVE TO MEET HIS CRITERIA THAT THE ELECTION ARRANGEMENTS SHOULD BE OPEN, FAIR AND ACCEPTABLE TO THE PEOPLE OF HONG KONG: AND ANY CHANGE SHOULD COME FROM THE COMMUNITY IN HONG KONG (OR CONCEIVABLY THE CHINESE) BUT NOT BE VOLUNTEERED BY HKG.
5.
OUR DRAFT MINUTE ALSO REFLECTS SUGGESTIONS FROM SIR ROBIN MCLAREN (HIS TELNO 1558, REPEATED TO YOU). YOU WILL SEE THAT SIR R MCLAREN EMPHASISES THE POINT THAT WE SHOULD AIM TO EXPLORE THE POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER REMOTE, OF REACHING AGREEMENT WITH CHINA. WE THINK THIS IS BROADLY RIGHT: IF THERE ARE CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH WE SHOULD MAKE CHANGES TO OUR PROPOSALS IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN SUPPORT IN HONG KONG IT WILL ALSO MAKE SENSE TO DISCUSS THESE WITH THE CHINESE IN THE HOPE, HOWEVER FAINT, OF SECURING AN AGREED WAY FORWARD. BUT THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF EMPHASIS BETWEEN THE AMBASADOR AND THE GOVERNOR ON THIS POINT, WHICH COMES OUT IN THE TELEGRAMS. IT IS BRIDGED IN THE DRAFT BUT IT WOULD BE USEFUL TO DISCUSS THE POINT FURTHER AT THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S OFFICE MEETING.
6. AS OPPORTUNITY ARISES, YOU MIGHT EXPLORE THE FOLLOWING POINTS WITH THE GOVERNOR:
HIS PERSONAL ASSESSMENT OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF HANGING ON TO ENOUGH VOTES IN LEGCO, DESPITE CRUDE CHINESE ARM-TWISTING
HIS VIEW AS TO WHETHER THE CHINESE WOULD, IF THEY LOST THE VOTE IN LEGCO NEXT YEAR, SUSTAIN THEIR CAMPAIGN OVER THE FOLLOWING TWO YEARS, WITH THE AIM OF INTIMIDATING PEOPLE FROM PARTICIPATING IN THE 1995 ELECTIONS. AT WHAT POINT DOWN THAT PATH WOULD THE JITTERS ALREADY APPARENT IN THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY BEGIN TO BE TRANSLATED INTO UNWELCOME DECISIONS?
THE CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH CHANGES TO THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS MIGHT BE CONTEMPLATED AND THE CHANGES WHICH COULD BE FEASIBLE ON THE CRUCIAL ISSUES OF THE FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCIES AND THE
ELECTION COMMITTEE.
- THE ROLE AND TIMING OF A MEETING BETWEEN THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND THE CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER. OVER THE LAST WEEK, THE IDEA HAS GAINED GROUND IN HKG THAT THE NEXT MEETING BETWEEN THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND QIAN (CURRENTLY ENVISAGED FOR MARCH 1993 IN PEKING) SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS ARE FINALLY PUT TO LEGCO (PROBABLY IN MID-FEBRUARY). YOU WILL RECALL
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