CONFIDENTIAL
LIEU-LT
8. Finally, and perhaps most significantly in terms of the next six months, the behaviour of LegCo is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Each crucial vote is in effect a cliff-hanger, and the future course of politics in the next six months could depend on the voting decisions of a few LegCo members. On political development HKG can rely on the UDHK, but not Meeting Point. In the socio economic sphere (eg taxes and government spending policies) the sources of party support for HKG are less clear and will I suspect, depend on the HKG's ability to lobby for support. There will be a price to pay.
9. The vote on the Airport Platform Contract demonstrates a new phenomenon: overt interference of China in the affairs of LegCo. This is a new and potent factor which we shall see much more of in the coming months.
10. It is extraordinarily difficult to gauge what "the community" thinks of all this. Polls and other investigations by HKG appear to show consistent majority support for Mr Patten. But I confess that I do not have great faith either in the methodology or the propensity of the average subject to tell pollsters what he/she really thinks. There is undoubtedly widespread worry and concern. I have received a rich mixture of opinions and more disagreement than agreement about what should be done. If ever there was a need for firm and decisive leadership in Hong Kong it is now, and it is therefore reassuring that this is one commodity at least which is not in short supply.
Yours Sincerely
Alan
A R Paul
cc: Mr Llewellyn, Government House
CONFIDENTIAL
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